$11 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry Heightens Volatility Risk Ahead of Election
nashnova research
$11 billion in Bitcoin options expire October 30, roughly a third of Deribit's total open interest; with the U.S. midterm election days away, traders brace for sharp swings in the $75,000–$82,000 zone.
How big is this options expiry?
The expiring contracts are worth roughly $11 billion, about one-third of all open Bitcoin options on Deribit.
Calls — bets on higher prices — outnumber puts, with heavy clusters at the $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 strike prices.
Bitcoin traded at $81,100 this week. This means → those high-strike calls will almost certainly expire worthless; the bullish bets did not pay off.
Why is the $75,000–$82,000 zone the risk epicenter?
Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, notes that about 70% of the expiring options' gamma — a measure of how sensitive an option's price is to moves in the underlying asset — sits in the $75,000–$82,000 range.
In plain terms = every small move Bitcoin makes inside that band forces market makers to adjust hedges aggressively, amplifying the price swing.
Below the $80,000 strike, puts outnumber calls by more than two to one. If market makers hold short positions, their hedging could accelerate a drop through $75,000–$78,000; if long, they may cushion the fall.
Will volatility cool after expiry?
Normally, once old options expire, sellers write fresh contracts — a "gamma supply" of liquidity that dampens swings.
Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, warns that this time some sellers may wait until November 3 election results are in before writing new contracts, leaving the market short of sellers to absorb volatility.
This means → the usual shock absorber goes missing exactly when it is needed most, and volatility around the election could spike significantly.
What do election outcomes mean for Bitcoin's price?
Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, expects more investors to buy puts near current levels as a downside hedge, forecasting a notable volatility pickup in November.
A Bloomberg survey maps three scenarios: Republicans keep both chambers — year-end median forecast $90,800; Democrats sweep both — $76,450; split Congress — $84,100.
This reflects a direct link between congressional control and the Trump administration's room to advance crypto-friendly legislation — making the election a key directional catalyst for Bitcoin.
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