$170 Billion, the Largest unlocking wave in the history of Hong Kong stocks is coming

The Hong Kong stock market is enjoying its most fiery IPO feast in recent years, but a trillion-level wave of lock-up expirations is quietly approaching.

Wind data shows that as of May 20th, the number of IPOs in the Hong Kong stock market this year has reached 56, doubling that of the same period last year, with the total fundraising amount reaching 144.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.8%. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has more than 400 companies on the waiting list, and the fervor of the listing boom seems to show no signs of cooling down. However, the other side of this prosperity is an unprecedented lock-up expiration peak.

According to calculations by GF International, the technology and biopharmaceutical companies that intensively entered the Hong Kong stock market in 2025, whose cornerstone investors and pre-IPO shareholders' lock-up periods will expire successively by 2026, with a total expiration market value of about 1.7 trillion Hong Kong dollars for the year, nearly tripling from the previous year and setting a peak in recent years—it is equivalent to about ten times the average daily transaction volume of the Hong Kong stock market.

"This is extremely rare in the history of the Hong Kong stock market," said GF International's Chief Strategy Analyst, Lai Ye Ye.

September "Storm Eye"

It is expected that the expiration scale in September alone will reach 530.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, accounting for more than one-third of the total for the year, even exceeding the total fundraising amount of IPOs in 2025.

Among them, the largest single expiration comes from Zijin Golden International. On September 30th, the 2.275 billion shares jointly held by Jinshan (Hong Kong) International Mining and Zijin Mining will be released from restricted sale, and according to the current market price, the corresponding market value exceeds 300 billion Hong Kong dollars. Zhang Yidong, Head of Stock Research at Haitong International, pointed out that these shares all belong to Zijin shareholders, and the actual expected reduction is limited.

July is also not calm either. AI unicorn MINIMAX and Zhi Pu will welcome expirations at that time, with the market value of the expirations for the two companies being over 90 billion and 20 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively, as calculated from the closing price on May 20th.

Systemic Risk or Structural Disturbance?

Facing the trillion-level expirations, market institutions' judgments have significantly diverged.

"Under the background of tight liquidity, the huge potential sale will lead to a diversion of funds, with small-cap stocks with a market value of less than 10 billion Hong Kong dollars, not included in the index or Hong Kong Connect, being the first to be affected," said Director of Investment at Xinghe Securities, Zhao Hongmei, who believes that the second half of the year will show an "index under pressure, individual stock differentiation" pattern in the Hong Kong stock market, with this round of impact highly focused on AI and technology growth stocks with high valuations and weak profit foundations.

Zhang Yidong, Chief Economist of Haitong International, holds a relatively optimistic position. He believes that the macro economy and global liquidity are the core variables of the trend in the Hong Kong stock market, coupled with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, the peak of expiration will be "safe and sound," showing more of a "amplified volatility before expiration, and stabilization after landing" rhythmic feature.

China Merchants Securities (Hong Kong) is more cautious in its attitude, and its research points out that the expiration of restricted shares has a sustained negative impact on the Hong Kong stock market — individual stocks already bear pressure before expiration, with the cumulative excess returns continuing to decrease after expiration, and there is a significant negative correlation between the expiration scale and the Hang Seng Index returns.

An unnamed investment banking professional in the Hong Kong stock market emphasized that trampling often occurs when the market is low and funds are scarce: "If there is still an expectation of an upward market in the next three to six months, shareholders who have already expired prefer to reduce holdings at different times, rather than a concentrated exodus."

Can Incremental Funds Fill the Gap?

Supporters bet on incremental funds. Many investment banking professionals have pointed out that some foreign institutions have already re-examined the Chinese market and prefer to flow into blue-chip targets first, providing liquidity support; the capital raising through placement in the first five months of 2026 reached 12.5 billion US dollars, although it was