Goldman Sachs Maintains $4,900 Gold Price Target, Central Bank Buying as Core Support
N.R. Finch
Gold fell to its second-lowest settlement of the year at $4,022/oz, yet Goldman Sachs is holding its year-end $4,900 target, arguing that sustained central-bank reserve accumulation is the force that ultimately sets direction.
Why did gold pull back?
Comex gold's July contract dropped 1.4% Monday, settling at $4,022.30/oz — the second-lowest close this year.
Three forces pressed down at once: the U.S.–Iran conflict pushed energy prices higher, inflation expectations rose, and the dollar strengthened.
This means → gold, as a non-yielding asset (it pays no interest), takes the hardest short-term hit when rate-hike bets and a strong dollar arrive together.
Why is Goldman still calling $4,900?
Samantha Dart, Goldman's co-head of global commodities research, stated plainly that "gold's rally is not over" and held the year-end 2026 target at $4,900/oz.
Her core thesis rests on one trend: emerging-market central banks are steadily shifting reserves out of dollar assets and into gold.
In plain terms = after Russia's central-bank assets were frozen in 2022, other central banks started worrying that "money held in someone else's system isn't safe" — and began buying gold faster. That trend has not reversed.
How strong is the central-bank buying data?
Goldman cited a World Gold Council survey: of 76 central banks polled between February and May, a record 45% said they plan to increase gold reserves over the next 12 months.
This means → nearly half the world's central banks intend to keep buying; demand is far from peaking.
This reflects a shift: the post-2022 "de-dollarization" trade is moving from isolated national decisions to a collective central-bank pattern.
What other headwinds remain?
Dart acknowledged that "a hawkish Fed is undermining the currency-debasement theme" — the market has begun pricing in rate hikes this year.
The dollar index posted its largest monthly gain in nearly a year, raising the cost of dollar-priced gold for overseas buyers.
ADM Investor Services noted that uncertainty around U.S.–Iran talks and the risk of renewed conflict could push energy prices higher again.
What to watch next?
The U.S. and Iran have agreed to pause recent hostilities, but whether negotiations yield real progress remains uncertain.
In plain terms = the short-term signal is the U.S.–Iran situation and the Fed's stance; the medium-to-long-term signal is whether central-bank buying keeps delivering.
Whether central-bank gold purchases stay at elevated levels will be the key test of Goldman's $4,900 target.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.