Goldman Sachs Raises Samsung's 2027 HBM Price Growth Forecast to +44%
Claire Weston
Goldman Sachs raised its Samsung 2027 HBM price growth forecast from +14% to +44% year-on-year, arguing that surging conventional DRAM spot prices are resetting the pricing baseline for HBM — and the bank itself says this number may still not be the ceiling.
Why can a DRAM spot price rewrite the HBM pricing outlook?
HBM — high-bandwidth memory, the specialized chips sitting next to AI processors to shuttle data at high speed — is priced off conventional DRAM as a baseline, plus a premium.
This means → when conventional DRAM rises, HBM's "starting line" rises with it. DDR5 spot is up 20% since May 1, now trading at a 25% premium to contract prices.
DDR4 spot rose 11% over the same period, with an even wider 45% premium. In plain terms = the spot market has run far ahead of the contract market — contract prices will very likely follow.
Could +44% still not be the ceiling?
Goldman's report states explicitly: "Given the tight HBM supply-demand balance and the widening spread between conventional DRAM and HBM pricing, we believe there is additional upside risk to our forecasts."
This means → Goldman itself views +44% as conservative. If DRAM spot keeps climbing, this number gets revised again.
The June DRAM sentiment index held at "mildly positive," unchanged from April. The price gains are demand-driven, not panic-stockpiling.
What does Samsung's near-term earnings picture look like?
Goldman expects Samsung's Q2 2026 DRAM ASP to rise ~46% quarter-on-quarter, but the "second derivative" of ASP growth is roughly -48 percentage points.
In plain terms = prices are still rising, just not as fast as last quarter — a shift from "accelerating gains" to "decelerating gains."
Goldman maintains a Buy rating on Samsung Electronics: 12-month target of ₩480,000 for common shares and ₩360,000 for preferred shares.
Is the supply-chain data telling the same story?
South Korea's May DRAM exports hit a fresh all-time high — up 21% month-on-month and 370% year-on-year. Goldman attributes this to memory price gains plus strong demand from major US and Chinese tech companies.
Taiwan corroborates: Nanya Technology's May revenue rose 730% year-on-year, marking 10 consecutive months of triple-digit growth. Distributor Supreme Electronics posted +253% year-on-year.
This reflects a full chain — from upstream exports to midstream distribution — running at cycle highs. The HBM pricing upgrade has solid demand underpinning it.
What is the server supply chain signaling?
Taiwan server ODMs — Inventec, Quanta, Wiwynn, Wistron — posted combined May revenue growth of 53% year-on-year.
Aspeed Technology, the world's largest server BMC chip supplier, grew May revenue 69% year-on-year — on top of an already elevated +75% base a year ago.
This means → it is not just memory itself; the downstream server chain is expanding in lockstep. AI compute demand is pulling both memory and servers simultaneously. The key variable to watch next: whether HBM pricing can keep ratcheting higher as conventional DRAM spot premiums widen further.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.