Asia's June Crude Imports Rebound to 20.71M bpd as Hormuz Uncertainty Continues to Weigh
Taylor Wilson
Asia's June seaborne crude imports recovered to 20.71 million bpd, still 23% below the pre-conflict three-month average; Hormuz Strait flows have regained barely a fifth of pre-conflict levels, and the futures market's calm pricing faces a stress test from both supply and demand.
Imports ticked up — so why say "far from recovered"?
June imports hit 20.71 million bpd, up from May's 20.39 million but still 23% short of the 26.79 million bpd three-month average before the US-Iran conflict.
April had plunged to 18.77 million bpd — the lowest since November 2015. This means → the current uptick is just a small step up from a decade-low trough, nowhere near normal.
In plain terms = think of pre-conflict imports as full water level; the surface has barely bounced off the bottom and hasn't reached the three-quarter mark.
What exactly is blocking the Strait of Hormuz?
June crude flows through the strait reached roughly 2.79 million bpd, more than triple May's 881,000 bpd — yet still less than a fifth of the pre-conflict average of 15.58 million bpd.
A 60-day US-Iran ceasefire was supposed to fully reopen the strait, but Iranian attacks on selected tankers keep shipowners and insurers on edge.
This reflects a wide gap between a ceasefire on paper and actual transit safety — the agreement has not resolved the risk concerns that drive shipping decisions.
Futures look calm — why are refined products still surging?
Brent crude settled Monday at $73.15/bbl, nearly level with the $72.48 close on Feb 27, the day before the conflict erupted. This means → futures have already priced in a supply recovery.
Asian refined-product prices tell a different story: Singapore diesel at $111.15/bbl, up 22% from pre-conflict; gasoline at $100.42/bbl, up 26.6%.
In plain terms = crude futures are betting on the future and assume supply comes back; refined products reflect the present — refiners are still working through the expensive feedstock they bought at the peak of the crisis, and that bill isn't settled yet.
China's imports at a decade low — what does that signal?
Kpler estimates China's June seaborne crude arrivals at just 5.8 million bpd, down from May's 6.8 million, making back-to-back months the weakest since November 2015.
That figure is roughly half the pre-conflict average of 11.39 million bpd. This means → Asia's largest buyer has effectively halved its purchasing, dragging the entire region's import numbers down.
Crude prices have returned to pre-conflict levels, so the economic incentive for Chinese refiners to resume buying is there — but new orders won't arrive before August at the earliest, leaving a two-month gap.
What should markets watch over the coming months?
Two core variables: whether Hormuz transit volumes truly recover + when China begins restocking at scale.
If both happen simultaneously — strait volumes surge while China rushes to buy — the crude market's supply-demand balance will need to be reassessed.
Strategic reserve releases by the US, Japan, and others provide some buffer, but that cushion cannot last indefinitely.
In plain terms = futures markets are calm now, but that calm rests on the assumption that supply will gradually normalize; if demand accelerates suddenly while supply lags, prices could reprice fast.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.