Shell: Global LNG Demand to Rise 65% by 2050 vs. 2025; Hormuz Risks Keep 2026 Trade Volumes Flat
Alina Collins
Shell forecasts global LNG demand will reach nearly 700 million tonnes per year by 2050, up roughly 65% from today; yet the Strait of Hormuz disruption has cut about one-fifth of monthly supply, and 2026 trade volumes may post zero growth — long-term optimism meets short-term paralysis.
A 65% demand surge by 2050 — what drives it?
Shell's 2026 LNG Outlook puts a headline number on the table: global LNG demand rises from 422 million tonnes in 2025 to nearly 700 million tonnes by 2050.
Two engines: Asia switching from coal to LNG, and data-centre expansion driving new power demand.
This means → Shell is no longer selling LNG as a "transition fuel" alone — it is betting on coal replacement and compute-driven electricity growing in tandem.
Why is 2026 trade volume nearly flat?
The Middle East conflict has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly one-fifth of global monthly LNG supply.
Shell expects 2026 trade volumes to match 2025 — but only if strait shipping resumes by this summer.
If the blockade persists, global LNG supply will post a rare annual contraction. Shell sees growth restarting only in 2027.
In plain terms = the long-term pie is enormous, but right now even "no shrinkage" depends on the strait reopening soon.
How severe is the price shock — and how does it compare to 2022?
At the worst point, about 15 million barrels of oil equivalent per day disappeared from the market.
Asian spot LNG prices rose to $21.63 per million British thermal units; the European benchmark TTF contract hit $18.33/MMBtu.
This means → prices spiked, but stayed well below the 2022 post-Russia-Ukraine TTF peak of $71.55/MMBtu — panic remained contained.
How did US exports act as a buffer?
From January to May, US LNG exports rose by roughly 10 million tonnes year-on-year; Qatari exports fell by nearly 20 million tonnes over the same period.
US monthly shipments to Asia jumped from under 1 million tonnes in January to over 4 million tonnes in May.
This reflects a forced rerouting of global LNG trade: the US is filling the Middle East gap, reinforcing its position as the swing supplier.
What does Qatar's facility damage really mean?
Shell holds equity in Qatar's Ras Laffan complex, which was hit by Iranian missile strikes; multiple production units were damaged.
Shell's Pearl GTL facility — also in Qatar — was struck and remains shut.
Even after the strait reopens, restarting LNG facilities will take six to eight weeks of ramp-up. Qatar says roughly 17% of its capacity needs years to repair.
In plain terms = an open strait does not equal flowing gas — the equipment has to be fixed first.
How will the long-term supply gap be filled — and who invests?
Shell expects about 180 million tonnes per year of new supply to come online by 2030.
To meet 2050 demand, an additional 200 million tonnes per year of liquefaction capacity — facilities that cool natural gas into liquid form — must be built beyond current projects, with the investment window centred on the 2030s and 2040s.
The US accounts for nearly 60% of LNG liquefaction projects under construction; Qatar ranks second at 15%. South and Southeast Asia are projected to represent about 40% of global LNG imports by 2050.
This means → whether Shell's "back to growth in 2027" call proves right hinges directly on Qatar's repair timeline and whether new Middle East projects are delayed — supply-side uncertainty is the real risk exposure in this report.
The conflict caused a systemic shock, with disruptions rippling through every part of the economy, but the LNG industry has proven resilient and able to adapt to changing market conditions.
Cedric Cremers
Shell Integrated Gas Director
(Shell 2026 LNG Outlook report)
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.