Goldman Sachs Forecasts Q4 Oil at $80, Maintains Overweight on Japan, South Korea, Taiwan & A-Shares
Miles Bennett
Brent crude has plunged from near $120 in late April to around $72, and Goldman Sachs sees it rebounding to $80 in Q4 — while keeping its overweight call on Japan, Korea, Taiwan and mainland A-shares.
Why has oil dropped so sharply?
Brent crude fell from roughly $120 per barrel in late April to about $72 now — a decline of more than 40%.
The main driver: markets are pricing in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf to open water, carrying roughly a fifth of global oil shipments.
This means → the "blockade premium" that inflated prices is unwinding, and oil is reverting toward supply-demand fundamentals.
Where does Goldman see Q4 oil?
Goldman's commodities team forecasts Brent will recover to $80 per barrel in Q4, slightly above pre-conflict levels.
The logic: refining facilities in the Gulf region and Russia remain damaged → refining capacity is constrained → refining margins stay elevated.
In plain terms = crude is cheaper, but the plants that turn crude into gasoline and diesel are still impaired — the processing link keeps earning well.
How has Asia absorbed the oil shock?
Goldman judges that inflation across most of Asia remains manageable, avoiding a repeat of the 2021–2022 price surge.
Two key buffers: ① governments released strategic oil reserves early, capping domestic prices; ② fiscal subsidies absorbed part of the cost.
This means → this energy shock was more concentrated and shorter-lived than the last one, and Asian policymakers deployed their toolkit more effectively than three years ago.
What does a hawkish Fed mean for Asia?
Goldman expects the Fed to signal a more hawkish stance, pushing the dollar back toward its March highs.
A stronger dollar typically pressures Asian emerging-market currencies; Goldman accordingly favors short positions in the Thai baht and Indian rupee.
Yet Goldman stresses that tech spending remains the dominant driver for several Asian economies — more important than currency swings.
Which markets does Goldman favor?
It keeps overweight ratings on Japan, Korea, Taiwan and mainland A-shares.
The common thread: all four are deep beneficiaries of the AI investment theme and the global tech-capex cycle.
Goldman flags three lines to watch going forward: Fed policy direction, the pace of AI investment, and progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz — these three will continue to drive Asian market performance.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.