U.S. Treasury Yields Stabilize at End of June; This Week's Nonfarm Payrolls and Employment Data Are Key
Miles Bennett
On the last trading day of June, the 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.3646%, virtually unchanged, as markets await a packed week of jobs data that will shape expectations for the Fed's next move.
Why did yields barely move?
The 10-year yield closed at 4.3646%, nearly flat; the 2-year stood at 4.1044% and the 30-year at 4.8522%.
This means → neither bulls nor bears were willing to place big bets ahead of a data-heavy week.
In plain terms = the bond market hit pause, waiting for Friday's payrolls report card.
What signal did falling oil prices send?
WTI crude settled at $70.62 a barrel, down 0.18%; Brent at $72.90, down 0.34%.
Energy costs have gradually retreated to levels before the Middle East tensions flared.
This means → oil is no longer stoking inflation fears, removing one upward push on yields.
What data drops this week — and which release matters most?
Tuesday: May JOLTS job openings; consensus expects 7.3 million. April's reading jumped to 7.6 million, the highest since May 2024.
Wednesday: May ISM Manufacturing PMI — a monthly health check on factory activity.
Thursday: June unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls — the week's most closely watched number, directly repricing the market's Fed expectations.
Why does April's job-openings spike deserve a closer look?
April JOLTS rose by 731,000 month-on-month to 7.6 million, a one-year high.
This reflects a labor market where available positions still outnumbered unemployed workers — a sign the job market had not meaningfully cooled.
In plain terms = if May's reading stays strong, the Fed has even less reason to rush a rate cut.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.