SpaceX and Tesla Share Prices Move in Tandem Over Past Four Days, Sparking Correlation Concerns
Alina Collins
Four days after SpaceX's IPO, the two Musk-led stocks have moved in tandem — SpaceX up 5.2%, Tesla up 7.9%. The feared sell-Tesla-to-buy-SpaceX trade never materialized, but two catalysts this week will test whether the lockstep holds.
What was the market afraid of?
Before the IPO, investors widely expected Tesla shareholders to dump Tesla and rotate into SpaceX, creating a seesaw that would drag Tesla's price down.
This means → the working theory was simple: retail money is finite, and a shiny new Musk stock would siphon bids from the old one.
Four trading days later, the data contradicts that fear — both stocks rose and fell together, in similar magnitudes.
What do four days of data actually look like?
Over the past four sessions, SpaceX gained 5.2% and Tesla gained 7.9%, each posting two down days and two up days.
On Monday SpaceX surged 7.2% in a single session — its largest one-day gain since June 15, the second trading day after the IPO.
Tuesday pre-market: SpaceX slipped 0.6% to $163.25; Tesla edged lower in sync, extending the tandem pattern.
Why are these two stocks moving as a pair?
Both companies share one CEO — Elon Musk — who commands intense loyalty among retail investors. Buying one often means betting on the whole "Musk portfolio."
In plain terms = many retail traders are not picking a company; they are betting on Musk himself, so they buy and sell both tickets together.
The fundamental narratives overlap too: SpaceX plans to put AI data centers in orbit; Tesla leans on AI for autonomous driving and humanoid robots. The shared label is "AI."
How does Wall Street see SpaceX?
11 analysts currently cover SpaceX; 6 rate it a buy, with an average price target of $243.
This means → at the current price of roughly $163, the consensus implies upside of nearly 50%.
Lead underwriters typically wait several weeks post-IPO before initiating coverage; the final analyst count is expected to reach 40–50 — the full research wave has not arrived yet.
When will the lockstep face a real test?
Two catalysts land this week: Tesla reports vehicle delivery numbers on Thursday, while SpaceX faces a large lock-up expiry and the first batch of Wall Street research notes.
In plain terms = delivery data is a Tesla-only fundamental event; lock-up selling pressure hits SpaceX alone. The two events pull in separate directions — a natural experiment for whether the correlation holds.
This reflects a broader reality: the current tandem move is driven more by "Musk faith" than by shared fundamentals. Once each company's own data diverges, the seesaw effect could still emerge.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.