South Korea's June Exports Post Largest Surge Since 1978 as PMI Weakens Simultaneously
Claire Weston
South Korea's June exports surged 70.9% year-on-year to $102.25 billion, the fastest pace since 1978, yet manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.1 — the gap between headline export strength and factory-floor sentiment is the key tension for this boom's durability.
How extreme is a 70.9% export surge?
June exports rose 70.9%, far above the 61.0% median forecast from a Reuters poll of 13 economists — and beyond every estimate's upper bound.
This means → analysts didn't just miss slightly; they collectively underestimated the strength of demand.
South Korea became the fourth country — after Germany, China, and the U.S. — to cross $100 billion in monthly exports.
What drove it? Semiconductors carried nearly half
Chip exports jumped 199.5% to $44.82 billion, a monthly record — one category accounted for 44% of total exports.
This means → global AI-infrastructure spending almost single-handedly pushed Korean exports to an all-time high.
Computer sales rose 308.8%; steel ended a 13-month decline with 9.6% growth; petroleum products gained 49.8% — but none rival chips in scale.
Where did it go? China led the surge
Exports to China grew 92.1%, to the U.S. 78.6%, and to the EU 31.8%.
The Middle East was the only major destination in decline, down 8.4%.
Imports rose 30.1% to $66.1 billion, faster than the expected 26.3%; the monthly trade surplus widened to a record $36.15 billion.
Why did PMI soften in the same month?
S&P Global's June manufacturing PMI — a monthly survey gauging factory-sector health — came in at 52.1, down from May's 54.8.
In plain terms = the reading is still above the 50 expansion line, but the direction is down — output and new-order growth both slowed, and new export orders fell for a second straight month.
S&P Global economist Usamah Bhatti noted that rising raw-material prices, procurement delays, and shortages are dragging on performance.
Record exports but weaker PMI — what does the split tell us?
This reflects a deep divide inside Korean manufacturing: AI chips are booming alone, while the rest of the sector faces rising costs and supply-chain friction.
Business optimism for the year ahead fell to its lowest since November 2025, driven by concerns over the domestic economy and persistently high input prices.
Put simply = the export headline looks spectacular, but it stands on one leg — chips. If AI demand cools or raw-material pressure reaches the chip supply chain, the foundation is thinner than the number suggests.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.