Aluminum Prices Drop to February Lows; June Marks Largest Monthly Decline Since 2008
Taylor Wilson
London aluminium fell to $3,060 per tonne, capping a 16% June decline — the steepest monthly drop since 2008 — as a Middle East ceasefire restored supply expectations and a stronger dollar weighed on industrial metals.
How far has aluminium fallen, and why is this drop historic?
Aluminium slid 0.5% to $3,071/t on the LME Tuesday, touching $3,060 intraday — the lowest since February 19.
June's 16% monthly loss is the largest since the 2008 financial crisis.
This means → in a single month, aluminium gave back most of its March-to-May rally; sentiment flipped from "supply squeeze" to "bearish pile-up."
Why did it rally before, and why is it falling now?
From March to May, aluminium surged because Middle East conflict disrupted supply — the region accounts for roughly one-tenth of global output.
As hostilities eased, the market priced in a return to normal supply, squeezing out the "war premium."
In plain terms = the price went up because fighting cut off shipments; now the fighting has stopped, shipments can resume, and the premium unwinds.
How is a stronger dollar adding pressure?
The dollar index rose for a second straight day, gaining 2.5% over the past two months — partly on a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance.
Aluminium, copper, and other commodities are priced in dollars; a stronger greenback raises the cost for non-dollar buyers.
This means → the stronger the dollar, the more non-dollar buyers hold back — and selling pressure builds.
What about other metals and fund flows?
Copper fell 0.9% to $13,254/t; Singapore iron ore dropped 1.6% to $97.50/t — industrial metals declined across the board.
Zhou Zhenting, a trader at Hangzhou Chenglian Industrial, noted that some Chinese investors are shifting capital from commodities into equities as China's stock market rallies.
This reflects a twin squeeze on industrial metals: macro-level dollar strength dampens demand expectations, while rising equities siphon away speculative capital.
What extra uncertainty hangs over copper?
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was due by Tuesday to submit a copper-market assessment to President Trump, reviewing whether refined copper imports need tariffs.
Refined copper was excluded from last year's tariff package; this review will shape U.S. copper-import policy going forward.
This means → if the review leans toward tariffs, copper's supply-demand balance could be disrupted again — making this the single biggest wildcard in the copper market right now.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.