India's June Manufacturing PMI Falls to 54.2, Second-Lowest in Nearly Four Years

N.R. Finch
Published todayAbout 6 min read

India's June manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.2, the second-lowest since mid-2022, as new orders and exports slowed in tandem — weak European demand was the main drag.

01

What does 54.2 actually tell us?

The PMI — a monthly survey gauging manufacturing health — fell from 55.0 in May to 54.2, also below the flash estimate of 54.5.
The 50 mark separates expansion from contraction; the current reading is still in growth territory and matches the long-run average.
This means → Indian manufacturing is still expanding, but the pace is visibly slowing — this is the second-lowest reading since mid-2022, better only than March.
02

Orders are cooling — where is the drag?

New-order growth was the second-slowest since June 2022, right after May's three-month high — the rebound did not hold.
Export orders were weaker still: international sales growth fell to a 39-month low, with firms widely citing soft European demand.
In plain terms = domestic orders are slowing, but overseas orders are slowing faster — and the problem is mainly Europe.
03

How is weaker demand feeding through to prices and hiring?

Output-price inflation was the slowest in three months; 93% of firms held prices unchanged — demand is not strong enough to support increases.
Input-cost inflation eased to a four-month low, though chemicals, metals, petroleum products and plastics remain on firms' watch lists.
Hiring growth was the slowest this year; 97% of firms kept headcount steady, saying capacity is already sufficient for current demand.
04

What matters for the second half?

Business confidence fell to a five-month low; uncertainty over demand outlook and market conditions is the chief concern.
Output expansion slowed to the second-lowest in nearly four years, with capital goods — equipment and machinery used in production — the clear drag.
This means → whether export orders can stabilise before European demand recovers is the key variable for India's manufacturing momentum in the second half.

Content is for reference only, not financial advice.

India's June Manufacturing PMI Falls to 54.2, Second-Lowest in Nearly Four Years · nashnova