UBS Survey: iPhone Purchase Intent Rises in US and Europe, Not Driven by AI
N.R. Finch
A new UBS survey shows iPhone purchase intent climbing in the US and Europe, but Apple Intelligence is not the driver — upgrade cycles and foldable expectations are doing the heavy lifting, meaning Apple's AI narrative has yet to convert into actual buying decisions.
Where is iPhone demand rising — and where is it falling?
US 12-month purchase intent rose ~300 bps to ~20%; the UK jumped 600 bps to 18%; Germany gained 400 bps to 14%.
Japan edged up just 100 bps to 13%, while China slipped 100 bps to 15%. This means → the US-Europe recovery is real, but Chinese demand is still contracting.
In plain terms = Western consumers are warming back up to a new iPhone; Chinese buyers are not.
Is Apple Intelligence failing to drive upgrades?
The share of respondents who would upgrade sooner because of Apple Intelligence fell to 24%; those saying it has no impact on their purchase decision rose to 31%.
UBS analyst David Vogt put it bluntly: "Apple Intelligence is not driving upgrade activity."
This reflects an awkward gap: Apple's biggest strategic bet — on-device AI — is not yet a reason for consumers to open their wallets.
How old are the iPhones people are still using?
Average iPhone age in users' hands dropped to 22.9 months, but remains close to the survey-record 24.1 months set in Q2 2025.
This means → the replacement cycle is speeding up slightly, but most users are still in "good enough, not replacing" mode.
In plain terms = the typical iPhone is nearly two years old — aging, but not yet old enough to force a switch.
Could a foldable iPhone be the real catalyst?
Consumer interest in foldable smartphones overall remains limited, but intent to buy a foldable made by Apple is notably higher.
Vogt said: "We believe a foldable iPhone will be more meaningful in driving consumer demand than Apple's recent AI features."
This reflects brand premium at work in hardware innovation — the same form factor draws more wallets when it carries an Apple logo.
What does UBS expect for Apple's second-half shipments?
UBS forecasts FY2026 iPhone shipments at 261.6 million units, up 15.7% year-on-year, driven by stronger-than-expected iPhone 17 demand and pre-price-hike stockpiling.
A foldable iPhone could add up to 5 million incremental units (~2% upside), but the current forecast does not factor in demand destruction from potential price increases.
This means → whether the foldable truly triggers an upgrade wave is Apple's key demand-side test for the second half — and if price hikes land at the same time, the uplift could be offset.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.