Goldman Sachs: Global Oil Surplus Could Reach 3 Million Barrels Per Day by 2027
Alina Collins
Goldman Sachs projects a global crude oversupply of roughly 3 million barrels per day by 2027 — even if every country rushes to refill strategic reserves, only about a third of the glut gets absorbed, leaving oil prices under sustained downward pressure.
How big is a 3-million-barrel-per-day surplus?
Goldman co-head of commodities research Samantha Dart said global crude oversupply will average roughly 3 million barrels per day by 2027.
This means → the daily surplus alone rivals the entire output of a mid-sized oil-producing nation — far more than buyers can absorb.
Strategic reserve refills account for about 1 million barrels per day, still leaving a net surplus of roughly 2 million barrels per day.
In plain terms = governments can stockpile as fast as they like and still only soak up one-third of the excess.
Why are strategic reserves so depleted?
The Strait of Hormuz closure during the Middle East crisis blocked millions of barrels of crude and LNG per day, forcing governments to release emergency stockpiles.
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1983; Cushing, Oklahoma delivery-hub inventories have dropped to operational-stress thresholds.
Several Asia-Pacific nations are now planning new storage facilities to strengthen energy security.
This reflects intense restocking demand worldwide — but Goldman argues it falls far short of offsetting the incoming supply wave.
Why is supply surging now?
The U.S. and Iran signed a negotiation memorandum in mid-June, and Hormuz Strait transit is gradually normalizing.
This means → the large volumes of crude bottled up during the crisis are about to flow back into the market, sharply expanding the supply side.
Morgan Stanley has also cut its oil-price forecast for the next 18 months, citing the strait's reopening as a catalyst for faster oversupply.
What does this mean for oil prices?
Multiple Wall Street banks now converge on the same call: oversupply is the base case.
This means → crude faces sustained mid-term downward pressure; the key checkpoint is whether actual production data confirm the surplus forecasts.
In plain terms = if the glut materializes, oil has further room to fall; if output disappoints expectations, the market will reprice.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.