Asia Premium Widens as U.S. LNG Exports to Europe Drop Below 50% for First Time in Nearly Two Years
Claire Weston
In June, the share of U.S. LNG exports going to Europe fell to roughly 42% — below half for the first time since July 2024 — as a widening Asia spot premium pulled cargoes east and European buyers held back, betting on lower prices later this year.
Where did the cargoes go — and why did Europe suddenly lose out?
LSEG ship-tracking data shows U.S. LNG exports to Europe hit 4.41 million metric tons in June, roughly 42% of the total — down from 50% in May and the first time below half since July 2024.
Asia took 3.25 million tons (about 31%), Latin America rose to 960,000 tons, and roughly 730,000 tons were still floating at sea with no fixed destination.
This means → U.S. LNG no longer defaults to Europe. Cargoes now chase the highest bidder — and global buyers are competing for the same pool of supply.
What gave Asia the edge?
June's Asian benchmark JKM — the spot LNG marker for Japan and South Korea — averaged $17.33 per million British thermal units. Europe's TTF benchmark averaged $13.19, a gap of roughly $4.
In plain terms = a single cargo earns $4 more per unit sold into Asia than into Europe. Exporters naturally redirect.
Middle East geopolitical tensions constrained supply further, widening the spread and making the arbitrage even more attractive.
Why did Egypt suddenly become a major buyer?
Egypt imported a record 1.06 million tons of U.S. LNG in June — about 10% of total U.S. exports for the month.
Egyptian buyers paid premiums of up to $1 per million BTU above TTF-linked prices.
This means → Egypt outbid European buyers, effectively taking a tenth of U.S. supply right out of Europe's share.
Why aren't European buyers rushing to secure cargoes?
Hans van Cleef, head of energy research at Eqolibrium, said: "The backwardated forward curve means traders are holding their ground and buying very little right now. Fear of overpaying is the dominant sentiment."
In plain terms = traders are betting that new global LNG capacity coming online later this year will push prices down — so buying now feels like paying too much.
This reflects a shift in European buyer psychology — from panic restocking to waiting for cheaper supply. Whether that bet pays off depends on how fast storage fills before winter.
Did total U.S. export volume change?
Total U.S. LNG exports in June edged up to 10.6 million metric tons, despite the month having one fewer day than May.
Facilities including Cheniere Energy and Freeport LNG resumed operations after planned maintenance, adding incremental supply.
Latin American exports rose to 960,000 tons, partly offsetting reduced output from the Atlantic LNG facility in Trinidad and Tobago — held by Shell and BP — which was undergoing maintenance.
What comes next?
Europe still needs to fill gas storage ahead of the next winter. If the Asia-Europe spread holds near $4, cargoes will keep flowing east, and Europe's restocking pace will come under pressure.
This means → whether storage fills on time is the market's next key test. If progress falls behind, European buyers may be forced to re-enter the market at even higher prices.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.