Goldman Sachs Forecasts U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls at 140K
Claire Weston
Goldman Sachs expects U.S. June nonfarm payrolls at 140,000 — above the 115,000 consensus — driven largely by a one-off World Cup hiring boost. If confirmed, the Fed's rate-cut timeline could slip further.
Why is Goldman more bullish than the Street?
Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels project 140,000 new jobs, roughly 20% above the Dow Jones survey consensus of 115,000.
Nearly all the gap comes from one event: the FIFA World Cup. Goldman estimates it added about 40,000 extra positions.
This means → strip out the World Cup effect and Goldman's "underlying" job growth is around 100,000 — not far from consensus at all.
How exactly did the World Cup create jobs?
Goldman cites payroll-management firm Homebase: the 11 World Cup host cities saw employment decline just 1.2% year-on-year, versus 3.5% in non-host cities.
In plain terms = cities with matches hired noticeably more restaurant and hotel staff; cities without matches stayed flat.
The clearest beneficiary is leisure and hospitality, where hiring rose 9.5% year-on-year. Professional and business services and trade and transportation also gained.
ADP came in weak — is the labor market actually holding up?
Wednesday's ADP private-payroll print was just 98,000, below the 120,000 forecast and down from May's 122,000.
Yet the same ADP report showed pay gains accelerating: job-switchers' annual wage growth hit 6.6%, while job-stayers held at 4.4%.
This means → companies aren't pulling back on spending — they're paying more to retain and compete for existing workers. The labor market's resilience is hiding in the paycheck, not the headcount.
What does the layoff data say?
Challenger, Gray & Christmas data show U.S. employers announced 45,849 planned layoffs in June — down 53% month-on-month.
First-half layoffs dropped 40% versus the same period last year, signaling extremely low appetite for workforce cuts.
In plain terms = companies are neither hiring aggressively nor firing aggressively — the labor market is stiff but not weak.
What does this mean for markets once the data drops?
The Street currently expects June nonfarm payrolls at 115,000, unemployment steady at 4.3%, average hourly earnings up 0.3% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year.
A Goldman-style upside surprise, paired with faster wage growth, would reinforce expectations that the Fed keeps raising rates this year.
This means → an already murky rate-cut timeline gets pushed back further — rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and growth tech could face pressure.
Goldman also flags a caveat: June nonfarm initial prints have historically skewed high — in each of the past four years, the first reading was later revised down.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.