AAII Survey: Bullish Sentiment Plunges to 31.4%, Bearish Rises to 42.3%
Miles Bennett
US retail bullish sentiment crashed from 44.9% to 31.4% in a single week while bearish hit 42.3% — Iran tensions and a tech selloff are crushing retail confidence simultaneously.
What just happened to retail sentiment?
The latest AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) weekly survey shows bullish sentiment fell from 44.9% to 31.4% in the week ending July 1 — a drop of over 13 percentage points.
This means → in under seven days, roughly one in three previously bullish retail investors flipped.
Bearish sentiment rose from 36.1% to 42.3%, putting pessimists firmly in the majority.
Why is the sideline crowd growing too?
Neutral sentiment — those expecting stocks to stay roughly flat over the next six months — climbed from 18.9% to 26.4%.
In plain terms = it is not just that some turned bearish; more investors chose to sit it out entirely.
This reflects uncertainty reaching a level where retail investors no longer feel comfortable picking a side.
What is scaring retail investors?
AAII pointed to two drivers: geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US, and heavy selling pressure in the tech sector.
This means → external risk (geopolitical conflict) and internal risk (sector-rotation selloff) are hitting at the same time — a two-front squeeze.
The AAII sentiment survey has run weekly since 1987 and is a classic leading indicator of retail mood — historically, bearish readings above 40% often signal the market has entered a fear zone.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.