Treasury Yields Rise Broadly During Holiday-Shortened Week
Taylor Wilson
U.S. Treasury yields climbed back during the Independence Day short week, with the 10-year reaching 4.447% — nearly erasing the dip triggered by weak payroll data as the market recalibrates between rate-hike expectations and signs of economic cooling.
How much did yields rise?
The 10-year yield rose 0.105 percentage points to 4.447%; the 2-year gained 0.043 pp to 4.130%.
This means → the long end moved far more than the short end — traders are repricing the medium-to-long-term rate path higher.
In plain terms = investors briefly bet on "rate cuts are coming" after weak jobs data, then pulled the bet back.
Jobs were weak — so why did yields rise?
June payrolls added just 57,000 jobs, roughly half the consensus forecast; yields did fall on the release day.
But the market quickly digested the number: per CME data, at least one rate hike this year remains the highest-probability scenario.
This reflects a single soft report is not enough to flip the rate-hike narrative — the market needs several consecutive weak prints before it truly pivots.
Where do inflation expectations stand?
Per LSEG data, swap-market-implied inflation expectations broadly match the Fed's 2% target.
This means → bond traders currently believe inflation is on track to normalize — no panic recession bets despite softer employment.
The bond market closed early for the holiday; normal trading resumes next Monday.
What to watch next week?
Markets will get June services PMI (purchasing managers' index — a monthly gauge of service-sector health) and existing-home sales data.
This means → if both readings also come in soft, the "cooling economy" narrative gains ground, and short-end yields could pull back again.
In plain terms = last week's payrolls fired the first shot; next week's data will tell us whether it was a misfire or the start of a trend.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.