Gold Posts First Weekly Gain in Five Weeks
Miles Bennett
U.S. June nonfarm payrolls came in at just 57,000 — roughly half the expected 110,000 — dragging the implied odds of a Fed September hike from 66% to 54%. Gold rose about 1.2% for the week, with spot at $4,144.83, its highest since June 23 — a clear repricing driven by softer rate expectations.
How bad was the jobs miss?
June nonfarm payrolls added 57,000 jobs; the Reuters consensus was 110,000 — the actual figure came in at half.
This means → the cooling signal hit harder than Wall Street expected, undermining the narrative that the economy is still running too hot for the Fed to pause.
After the release, the CME FedWatch tool showed implied odds of a September hike falling from 66% to roughly 54%.
Why is gold so sensitive to rates?
Gold generates no yield. The higher rates go, the greater the opportunity cost of holding it — capital flows toward interest-bearing assets instead.
In plain terms = when rate expectations drop, gold's appeal rises automatically, without anything about gold itself changing.
Spot gold settled at $4,144.83 per ounce, up 0.5%; August U.S. futures rose 0.8% to $4,157.50. The weekly gain of roughly 1.2% snapped a four-week losing streak.
What is the Fed saying internally?
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said current policy is "slightly restrictive," but AI-related investment remains "unusually strong" and the labor market is stable — the next move is not yet clear.
This means → one weak payrolls print has not tipped the Fed toward a dovish pivot; AI-driven capital spending has become a new wild card.
This reflects a Fed firmly in "data-dependent" mode — the September outcome is not preset.
Are central banks still buying?
World Gold Council data show central banks returned to net buying in May, adding a net 41 tonnes to official reserves.
In plain terms = central-bank demand acts as a floor under the gold market — even if prices swing short-term, this buying is unlikely to vanish overnight.
How did other precious metals perform?
Silver rose 0.5% to $61.28/oz, platinum gained 1.1% to $1,634.30, and palladium edged up 0.2% to $1,270.25 — all posting weekly gains.
This reflects a sector-wide tailwind from falling rate expectations, not a gold-only rally.
What comes next?
The key checkpoint: whether upcoming inflation data confirm the cooling signal from the jobs side.
This means → if inflation is also easing, the odds of a Fed hold in September climb further, supporting gold at current highs. If inflation rebounds, markets will reprice hike expectations and gold faces give-back risk.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.