U.S. Stock Futures Rebound, Gold Rises to Nearly Two-Week High, Bitcoin Reclaims $62,000
N.R. Finch
Global risk assets rallied during the US Independence Day break — S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.2%, gold touched a near-two-week high of $4,170/oz, and Bitcoin reclaimed $62,000. The common driver: markets pushed the Fed's first fully priced rate hike from October to December, easing pressure across asset classes.
Why did everything rally at once?
June US payrolls came in weaker than expected, and falling oil prices dragged down inflation expectations — both pointed to the same conclusion: the Fed has no reason to rush a hike.
This means → money markets now fully price the first 25-basis-point hike in December, two months later than the previous October expectation.
In plain terms = the rate-hike sword hanging overhead moved further away, and stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all exhaled.
Why are gold and the dollar moving in opposite directions?
Gold climbed to roughly $4,170/oz, a near-two-week high; the dollar index hit a two-week low and is on track for its worst weekly performance since May.
This means → cooling hike expectations directly benefit non-yielding assets like gold — the "opportunity cost" of holding gold (the interest you forgo) just shrank, drawing capital back in.
Ebury head of market strategy Matthew Ryan said: "Unless we see clearer signs that energy-price rises are feeding into core inflation, we believe the Fed will opt for a cautious tightening path."
After the chip-stock rout, what drove Asia's turnaround?
The MSCI Asia-Pacific index rebounded as much as 2.2% intraday; memory-chip stocks that plunged over the prior two sessions surged — Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Kioxia each rose more than 8%.
SK Hynix had fallen 30% from its all-time high; the bounce signals renewed confidence in AI hardware supply-chain fundamentals.
Goldman Sachs equity strategist Tim Moe said: "Fundamentals remain very, very strong, and the market is still under-pricing them."
Anthropic is reportedly in talks with Samsung over custom AI-chip foundry work. This reflects an unbroken AI capex logic chain, with new orders still flowing in.
How is European equity hitting a record high?
The Stoxx Europe 600 is set for a second consecutive record close, led by utilities and tech.
The index is also on track for a fourth straight weekly gain. This means → a Fed pause is not just a US story — global risk appetite is rising in tandem.
Dollar weakness plus deferred hike expectations are providing sustained inflow support for European assets.
Can the Bitcoin bounce last?
Bitcoin reclaimed $62,000 and is once again moving in step with gold — the two had notably diverged earlier.
Two short-term forces are at work: forced short-covering adding buy pressure + improved macro hike expectations lifting risk appetite.
But US spot Bitcoin ETFs are still recording record monthly net outflows. In plain terms = the near-term bounce is technical relief plus sentiment repair — whether it becomes a trend depends on whether real money follows.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.