Macquarie: Now Is the Best Time to Buy China AI Chip Stocks
N.R. Finch
Macquarie initiated coverage on five Chinese AI chip companies, calling the convergence of a maturing domestic LLM ecosystem and policy tailwinds an optimal entry window — with Cambricon as its top A-share pick and Biren Technology as its top Hong Kong pick, implying upside of over 50% and over 100% respectively.
Why does Macquarie call this "the best time"?
The report cites three drivers arriving at once: accelerating AI adoption in China, a maturing domestic large-language-model ecosystem, and the rise of the "compute economy."
Policy adds a fourth tailwind: Beijing is restricting Nvidia GPU imports, echoing U.S. export controls. This means → the addressable market for domestic chip makers is being carved out by regulation, raising growth visibility for the leaders.
In plain terms = demand is climbing, the software ecosystem is catching up, and policy is clearing the field — Macquarie sees all three lines pulling together as a buy signal.
Who are the top picks? Cambricon for A-shares, Biren for Hong Kong
Cambricon (寒武纪, Shanghai-listed) is the top pick, rated outperform with a target price of RMB 2,060 — implying over 50% upside.
The key shift Macquarie highlights: Cambricon's client base has moved from government-run smart-computing centers to leading cloud providers and LLM developers. This means → a more balanced revenue mix, healthier margins, and steadier cash flow — no longer a single-customer story.
Biren Technology (壁仞科技, Hong Kong-listed) is the top Hong Kong pick, with a target of HK$140 — implying over 100% upside. The report favors its general-purpose GPU portfolio focused on high compute power, chip interconnect, and large-scale clusters, plus a domestic supply chain that supports upcoming product launches.
Which other names made the list?
Hong Kong-listed Tenstorrent (天数智芯) and A-share-listed Muxi (沐曦) also received favorable coverage in the initiation.
Macquarie did not disclose specific target prices for these two, but grouped them alongside Cambricon and Biren as core beneficiaries of the domestic-substitution theme.
Who got the bear case? Why Hygon ranks last
Hygon Information Technology (海光信息, Shanghai-listed) is the only name rated underperform.
Macquarie flags two concerns: first, Hygon's success relies heavily on technology licensing from AMD; second, in the emerging agentic-AI trend, upside in Hygon's segment is limited.
In plain terms = not self-reliant enough on core technology, and the runway isn't long enough — those two factors together earned the lowest rating.
What does the competitive landscape look like? Huawei leads by a wide margin
Citing IDC data, Macquarie notes Huawei Ascend led AI chip shipments last year by a wide margin, with Cambricon second and Hygon third.
Huawei has no listing plans; Alibaba and Baidu also have AI chip subsidiaries, but Macquarie's coverage focuses solely on independently listed chip companies.
This reflects a broader reality: whether the domestic-substitution thesis can keep converting into actual earnings is the ultimate test of these ratings — the narrative is compelling, but the numbers have to follow.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.