Ming-Chi Kuo: Foldable iPhone May Be Announced Alongside Other Products but With Delayed Sales Launch; Supply Remains Tight Through Year-End
Alina Collins
Apple supply-chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says the foldable iPhone will ship only 7–8 million units in H2 2026, with under 1 million in Q3 — making an iPhone X-style split all but certain: unveiled on stage in September, but pre-orders and sales pushed to Q4.
Why might the foldable iPhone be "shown but not sold"?
The bottleneck is production: Q3 assembly shipments are just 500K–1 million units, roughly 10% of the full H2 total. This means → there is simply not enough inventory to support a simultaneous September launch.
By contrast, iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are expected to ship about 22 million units in Q3 — more than enough stock. Their launch schedule is unaffected.
In plain terms = at the same keynote, the foldable will be the one you can look at but not buy. Pre-orders and actual sales wait until Q4, and supply stays tight through year-end.
How close is this to the iPhone X playbook?
On September 12, 2017, Apple unveiled iPhone X alongside iPhone 8/8 Plus. But iPhone X was hard to manufacture — Q3 shipments came in under 1 million. Pre-orders slipped to October 27; sales began November 3.
Kuo sees the same core logic: both products lead with a breakthrough experience, and both hit an early production wall.
The key difference — iPhone X ultimately shipped about 30 million units in H2 2017, and supply pressure eased by late November. The foldable iPhone sits at just 7–8 million for H2, with a higher price tag and greater manufacturing complexity. This means → the shortage cycle will likely last longer and ease more slowly.
At $2,300–$2,500, will demand hold up?
Kuo's checks with carriers, retail channels, and resellers point to strong demand at a price of roughly $2,300–$2,500, at least through end-2026.
He expects pre-orders to sell out fast, with delivery lead times stretching to four to six weeks or longer and staying there through December. This means → scarce supply plus a highly recognizable design will fuel significant short-term resale premiums.
Kuo notes that scalper prices 50%–100% above retail are "not impossible."
When will we actually know if demand is real?
Kuo warns explicitly: current market hype cannot reliably predict long-term demand.
The best observation window, he argues, is late 2026 through Q1 2027 — by then, holiday-season effects and launch excitement will have faded, and early production problems should be largely resolved.
In plain terms = today's frenzy may just be novelty plus scarcity. Whether foldable iPhone demand is truly sustainable can only be judged once the hype cools and supply catches up.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.