A Critical Week for U.S. Stocks: Midterm Elections, Major Earnings, and Nonfarm Payrolls All in Play
nashnova research
Big Tech earnings missed across the board, triggering a sharp sector sell-off; this week the midterm elections, October non-farm payrolls, and another wave of heavyweight reports converge — forcing the market to reprice the Fed path and policy risk in a single week.
Why did tech stocks suddenly plunge?
Alphabet missed on both revenue and profit; its stock fell 13%. Amazon missed on earnings and revenue. Intel beat on earnings, yet its stock still dropped over 28%, erasing roughly a quarter of its market cap.
Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney wrote of Amazon: "This is an expectations reset, not a fundamental reset."
This means → the companies themselves did not deteriorate — investors simply raised the bar. The same growth numbers, measured against higher expectations, became a "miss."
Was the news really all bad?
Not quite. Alphabet's cloud unit posted revenue of $30.7 billion, above the $29.1 billion consensus. Intel's data-center and AI division brought in $7.318 billion, up 78% year-on-year, beating the $6.675 billion estimate.
Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue hit $45.9 billion, up 40% year-on-year — the cloud and AI sub-segments were actually accelerating.
In plain terms = the headlines said "miss," but the most profitable AI and cloud businesses actually beat. The market sold the aggregate expectations gap, not a core-business breakdown.
How packed is this week's calendar?
Monday: Apple, Palantir, Tower Semiconductor, and Lattice Semiconductor report earnings.
Tuesday: US midterm elections — 470 races covering all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats; AMD also reports, and the government releases JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data.
Wednesday through Friday: Toyota, ConocoPhillips, Arm Holdings, Qualcomm, McDonald's, and other heavyweights report; the US Treasury publishes its quarterly refunding announcement; Friday brings the October non-farm payrolls report.
How could the elections move markets?
Investors are watching key races that could reshape data-center development pipelines at the state level — notably the Ohio Senate race and the Texas governor's race.
California voters will decide on Proposition 40, which would impose a wealth tax on billionaires. Meta has already issued new shares to prevent Mark Zuckerberg from having to sell stock to pay the tax, which would dilute his voting power.
This means → the election results are not just political news — they directly determine where AI infrastructure can be built, and whether tax policy reshuffles major shareholders' control structures.
Why are payrolls the biggest wildcard this week?
Economists forecast 55,000 new jobs in October; last month's report showed only 29,000 — far below expectations.
A strong labor market is one of the key arguments underpinning the Fed's September rate hike and a possible further hike in December. Any sign of weakness could complicate that outlook.
This reflects a broader dynamic: the combination of payrolls data and midterm results will serve as the week's twin checkpoints for the market to price the Fed's rate path and policy risk.
Are global central banks also in play this week?
The Bank of England announces its rate decision on November 5; markets widely expect a 25-basis-point hike to 4.0%.
The Reserve Bank of Australia announces on November 3; a fifth rate hike this year is expected.
Seth Meyer, head of global client portfolio management at JanusHenderson Investors, noted that hyperscale data-center operators are making massive AI infrastructure investments aimed at driving earnings growth over the next decade or longer, with management teams factoring in potential shifts in the macro cycle and regulatory environment.
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