About a Quarter of Large Tankers Stranded Have Crossed the Strait of Hormuz
N.R. Finch
Three months after Iran's war shut the strait, 29 of 109 trapped tankers have slipped out — but their 520,000 barrels per day is a fraction of pre-war flow.
How did 29 tankers get out?
Bloomberg ship-tracking data shows 29 of 109 large non-Iranian tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since it effectively closed on February 28.
All 29 are large crude carriers — VLCCs, Suezmax, and Aframax vessels — each able to hold over 700,000 barrels.
In plain terms = roughly one in four trapped ships has left, but the other 80 remain inside the Gulf.
How dangerous is the crossing?
Sporadic hostile actions persist along the strait. Several ships chose to cross at night to evade shore-based rocket threats.
Most ships switched off AIS — the automatic identification system that broadcasts a vessel's position — before transiting. Some cargo-owning governments needed diplomatic intervention just to secure passage.
This reflects a high-risk, semi-clandestine escape route rather than any formal reopening of the waterway.
What is Iran's "toll fee" about?
Iran has imposed a transit fee on passing vessels, charging up to $2 million per crossing in the northern channel between its Larak and Qeshm islands.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE refused this arrangement. Some ships turned back mid-attempt; others opted for a southern route closer to Oman.
This means → strait passage has become a geopolitical negotiation: who pays, which channel to use, and whether a ship gets through at all now depends on diplomacy, not shipping rules.
What does the escaped oil mean for markets?
The 29 ships carried an average of roughly 520,000 barrels per day — a small fraction of pre-war flow. Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz handled about one-fifth of global oil supply.
Even so, global markets absorbed the volumes readily. Global inventories are currently declining at a record pace.
Put simply = the escaped oil is a drop in the bucket. What has really kept markets supplied is the crude Saudi Arabia and the UAE rerouted through alternative pipelines, which moved more volume than these tankers did.
What happens next?
Reports indicate the US and Iran have reached a preliminary deal to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and begin negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said the company currently has six chartered vessels in the Gulf; whether they transit is left to the shipowners.
This means → if a peace deal materialises, the ships that already escaped can return to the Gulf to reload, significantly speeding supply-chain recovery. Until then, the strait remains a costly gamble for every vessel that attempts it.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.