ADNOC Trading Chief: August Could Be a Key Turning Point for Oil Prices
Claire Weston
ADNOC's trading chief warned that August could mark a sharp upturn in oil prices if demand rebounds while the Strait of Hormuz crisis persists, adding that a full supply-chain recovery to pre-war levels may take until mid-2027.
Why does August matter?
ADNOC's EVP for sales and trading, Philippe Khoury, said economies are actively compressing demand; if that holds, prices may stay near $100 a barrel.
But if demand rebounds while the strait crisis continues, August becomes the inflection point for a price surge.
This means → the current "stability" in oil prices is demand-driven, not supply-driven. The moment demand recovers, the supply gap bites immediately.
Khoury was blunt: "It's hard to see a very optimistic outcome" based on today's assessment.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz recovery so slow?
Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz carried roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. After the US-Israel war against Iran broke out on February 28, Iran effectively shut the strait.
Khoury said transit volumes will remain below pre-war levels as long as peace prospects stay uncertain.
In plain terms = recovery is not a light switch. Some links need weeks, others months; a full return to pre-war status may take until mid-2027. ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber gave the same timeline last month.
What is happening with jet fuel?
The Middle East typically supplies 40%–45% of Europe's jet fuel. Those flows are now severely curtailed.
Khoury stressed this is the first time in history that airlines with full price hedges still cannot operate because of a physical supply shortage.
This means → the problem is not cost — it is availability. Hedging — locking in fuel prices through financial contracts — covers price risk but cannot conjure barrels that do not exist.
How do Chinese and Indian demand differ?
Chinese demand is below expectations but warming gradually; independent "teapot" refineries — China's smaller, privately run refiners — are showing buying interest.
China previously bought large volumes of Iranian crude but now faces a double blockade: Iran's closure of the strait and US counter-blockade of Iranian ports.
India has kept buying throughout the crisis and remains one of the largest spot purchasers. This reflects two very different playbooks from Asia's biggest buyers.
How is ADNOC itself coping with the bottleneck?
ADNOC has brought significant capacity back online and operates a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, with a capacity of roughly 1.8 million barrels per day.
Abu Dhabi announced last month it is building a second bypass pipeline, aiming to double export capacity outside the strait by 2027.
In plain terms = ADNOC produced about 3.4 million bpd before the war. The existing pipeline can move roughly half of that; the second line is designed to close the gap.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.