After NVIDIA's 32% Plunge: Goldman Sees Appeal, Supply Chain Tightens Self-Review
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Nvidia shares have pulled back roughly 32% from their all-time high, with Jensen Huang's resignation sending shockwaves from valuations into supply chains and Washington politics — yet institutions see a compelling risk-reward at these levels.
Down a third — why are institutions calling it attractive?
Goldman Sachs projects Nvidia's 2027 EPS at $16.70, above Wall Street consensus of $15.91, implying a forward P/E of roughly 9.6×.
This means → paired with an expected ~80% EPS growth rate, Goldman sees the risk-reward at this price as already favorable.
Fundstrat's Tom Lee is more blunt: investors should "buy the dip in Nvidia" — this sell-off is an entry point, not an exit signal.
In plain terms = both firms point to the same conclusion — Nvidia's core value hasn't collapsed because of a leadership change; the drop is mostly an emotional and valuation repricing.
Why did Goldman bring up the Apple precedent?
Goldman cited Apple's post-Jobs trajectory: after his medical leave and death in 2011, Apple's forward P/E compressed from roughly 17× to about 12×, briefly dipping below 9× in 2013.
The multiple didn't recover to near 15× until the market regained confidence in iPhone execution.
This means → Goldman is signaling that Nvidia's valuation multiple may stay "in limbo" until successor arrangements and business momentum become clear — uncertainty itself compresses the P/E.
Goldman stressed the two cases aren't perfectly comparable, but share a common trait: technology leadership and a durable moat.
What is the supply chain afraid of?
Nikkei Asia reports that investigations into Huang by Nvidia and the U.S. government have triggered broad anxiety across the AI server supply chain — fear that Washington will tighten scrutiny of AI hardware export controls.
A Taiwanese server executive told Nikkei he will personally fly to a Southeast Asian country this week to verify that AI servers in a local data center are actually operational: "Management didn't used to make these trips, but now we all have to be extra careful."
Another server company has ordered its sales teams to stop accepting orders from unfamiliar, new, and small clients for Nvidia, AMD, and Intel products.
In plain terms = supply-chain firms aren't waiting for directives — they're self-tightening, preferring lost business over accidentally crossing an export-control line.
What are competitors picking up in the chaos?
AMD shares rose for three consecutive trading days after Nvidia's crisis broke, gaining nearly 30% from the prior Friday's close; AMD also launched a more powerful AI processor on Tuesday.
Google released two new versions of its in-house TPU — tensor processing unit, a custom chip purpose-built for running AI models — on Monday.
Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya noted that if Nvidia faces disruption or tighter scrutiny, AMD, Broadcom, and Marvell could capture more market share.
But Fusion Fund founder Lu Zhang cautioned that tighter export controls are a double-edged sword for AMD: some clients may diversify away from Nvidia, yet broader restrictions could also limit AMD's ability to serve certain markets.
Who is Washington's pressure aimed at?
Bloomberg reports that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick faces congressional questioning over whether his department did enough to prevent Nvidia AI chips from reaching Chinese buyers.
Republican Senator Jim Banks wants Lutnick to testify before the Senate Banking Committee "as soon as possible"; Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren demands an explanation for why export-control loopholes remain open.
Axios previously reported that President Trump approved action three times this year against firms suspected of re-routing Nvidia chips to China, but Lutnick delayed enforcement.
This means → the political pressure on export controls has crossed party lines — both sides are asking the same question: why haven't the loopholes been closed?
Who takes over, and what is the market watching?
Nvidia CFO Colette Kress has been named interim CEO; she holds roughly 4.8 million Nvidia shares worth about $800 million.
Veteran board member Harvey Jones becomes the new chairman — an early investor when Nvidia was founded in 1993, holding over 7 million shares worth more than $1 billion.
The leading internal candidate is Ian Buck, who runs the data-center business and invented the CUDA platform; external candidates reportedly include Arm CEO René Haas.
This reflects the market's two core checkpoints for Nvidia's valuation recovery: can the successor CEO rebuild execution confidence + will tighter export controls further shrink the addressable market.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。