Chinese AI Model Stocks Lose $150 Billion Combined, With No Bottom in Sight
nashnova research
MiniMax and Zhipu (Z.AI) have shed roughly $150 billion in combined market cap from their respective peaks — two star IPOs from January now caught in a brutal reversal as lagging model performance, a global price war, looming lock-up expiries, and potential rival IPOs leave the market with no reason to buy.
$150 billion gone — what happened to these two?
MiniMax fell below its IPO price on Thursday, after peaking at 650% above that price in March. Zhipu has dropped 81% from its June high.
Both launched new models to revive confidence — MiniMax's M3.1 Flash slashed token prices, Zhipu rolled out GLM-5.3-FlashX — but neither moved the stock.
This means → investors have stopped asking "what's the new model?" and started asking "can you survive until you turn a profit?"
Weaker models, losing the price war — where's the edge?
According to Artificial Analysis's intelligence index, both companies' latest models trail top U.S. models significantly — and even score slightly below DeepSeek, Alibaba, and Xiaomi.
Chinese AI labs keep cutting token prices, but Anthropic and OpenAI have matched those cuts, specifically to erode China's cost advantage.
In plain terms = they can't beat U.S. leaders on capability, can't beat DeepSeek on efficiency, and the price war is being fought back on their home turf — squeezed from both ends, margins keep shrinking.
What does the industry think of their chances?
Bank of America analyst Alex Liu notes China has over 10 AI labs today, but the field will consolidate to far fewer. "It's hard to tell who survives — or who drops out first."
Gavekal Capital portfolio manager Leonid Mironov is blunter: "U.S. models are more capable, DeepSeek is the most efficient — it's hard to see where MiniMax and Zhipu fit."
This reflects a shifting consensus on China's pure-play AI model stocks: the question has moved from "who wins?" to "who falls first?"
Will lock-up expiries and new IPOs make things worse?
Potential IPO plans from DeepSeek and Moonshot AI could pull investor capital away — MiniMax and Zhipu are currently the only two listed pure-play Chinese AI model companies.
Bloomberg data shows roughly 178 million Zhipu shares and 25 million MiniMax shares held by pre-IPO investors will become tradeable in January.
This means → more new-stock supply plus lock-up selling pressure hit at the same time — and the window is only months away.
What does it take to survive until breakeven?
JPMorgan strategist Chloe Liu notes MiniMax has shifted most of its revenue outside China, while Zhipu's API is gaining traction with global developers.
JPMorgan rates Zhipu above MiniMax, citing Zhipu's coding capabilities as a stronger competitive position.
JPMorgan estimates AI model businesses will reach profitability around 2028 — until then, holding users and expanding overseas revenue are the core variables for judging whether either company can make it to that turning point.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。