AI and Foldable Phones Fail to Boost China's Smartphone Market as IDC Reports Worst Q3 Shipments on Record
nashnova research
A Bloomberg Intelligence survey shows 69% of Chinese consumers won't upgrade until at least 2027, with AI ranking dead last among purchase triggers; IDC data confirm the September quarter saw the largest year-on-year shipment decline on record, and the bottom for the world's biggest smartphone market is still nowhere in sight.
Why are consumers holding onto their phones longer?
In October, 69% of respondents said they would wait until at least 2027 to upgrade — double the share recorded in May.
Consumers are stretching device lifecycles to two to three years. This means → even a wave of new launches is meeting a shrinking pool of willing buyers.
In plain terms = for most people, their current phone is "good enough," and the urgency to upgrade is fading.
Why isn't AI selling phones?
Only 8% of respondents cited AI as a reason to upgrade, down from 12% a year ago — dead last among 11 purchase triggers.
By contrast, 87% said everyday use requires at least 16 GB of memory — hardware specs still dominate purchase decisions.
This reflects a clear consumer stance: "AI is nice to have, but not worth buying a new phone for."
Why can't foldables rescue the market either?
Apple's foldable iPhone Duo failed to generate mass-market demand — just 5.8% of Chinese respondents are using or have decided to buy a foldable.
This means → foldables remain a niche category in China, far too small to move the overall upgrade needle.
How bad are the shipment numbers?
IDC data show global phone shipments in the September quarter posted their largest year-on-year decline on record.
The direct driver: demand from AI infrastructure projects pushed memory-chip prices — the core components phones use to store data and run apps — sharply higher over the past year.
In plain terms = the AI boom hasn't helped sell more phones; it raised their component costs first.
Which brands are faring relatively better?
Apple users show higher price tolerance and greater willingness to pay for AI features, giving Apple a relative edge in a declining market.
Analyst Steven Tseng noted that 27% of non-iPhone users would consider AI features but refuse to pay extra, versus 19% among iPhone users — a gap that favors Apple's monetization potential.
Huawei continues to climb in consumer preference rankings, with OPPO and vivo steadily ceding share to it.
Can Singles' Day promotions turn things around?
Analyst Steven Tseng's verdict: promotions are unlikely to meaningfully boost demand.
Flagship models — Huawei Mate 90 Pro and Pro Max, Xiaomi 18 Pro Max — are offering no discounts; manufacturers have very little room to cut prices.
This means → with upgrade cycles lengthening and AI failing as a demand driver, when China's phone market hits bottom remains the industry's biggest open question.
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