AI Competition Fails to Shake Google Search as Traffic Grows 4% YoY
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Google Search saw global web visits rise 4% year-on-year to 2.8 billion in June 2026, even as AI rivals posted explosive user growth — the July 22 earnings report is the next test.
AI rivals are surging — why hasn't Google Search lost traffic?
Similarweb data compiled by BofA Securities show Google's global web visits rose 4% year-on-year in June 2026, reaching 2.8 billion.
In the same period, Claude's mobile users surged 1,206% year-on-year and ChatGPT's grew 51% — yet Google's mobile daily active users still climbed 12%.
This means → AI chatbots are capturing *new* use cases, not poaching from Google Search's existing base.
Is Google's own AI product, Gemini, cannibalizing Search?
Over the past year Gemini's web traffic more than quadrupled, and its mobile daily active users grew 295%.
Google has folded Gemini into Search via its "AI Overviews" feature — the two product lines reinforce each other rather than compete.
In plain terms = Gemini is not a substitute for Search; it is an added module on the results page. The traffic stays inside Google's ecosystem.
What does this signal for Alphabet's upcoming earnings?
BofA Securities analyst Justin Post wrote: "Google's recent commentary about Search being in an expansion moment may foreshadow continued strength in 2026."
He sees stable Q2 traffic and strong e-commerce volumes, arguing Search revenue could beat expectations. BofA maintains a Buy rating with a $430 price target.
Alphabet shares are up 14% year-to-date at $355.67, outpacing the S&P 500 — but have pulled back roughly 6.5% since late May.
Can Search data ease concerns about the DeepMind talent exodus?
A wave of DeepMind researcher departures had raised investor fears that Google was falling behind in the frontier-AI model race.
Search traffic data suggest that everyday consumer use cases depend less on the most advanced models than the market assumed — Google's core traffic moat remains intact in the near term.
This reflects a deeper reality: for the vast majority of users, "just Google it" is still the default action, and frontier-model capability gaps have not yet changed that habit.
July 22 earnings — what is the market watching?
Of the 70 analysts tracked by FactSet, 86% rate Alphabet a Buy — Wall Street conviction on Search is near a high.
The Q2 report on July 22 is the key checkpoint: whether Search revenue can match the resilience shown in traffic.
This means → if revenue confirms a beat, the 6.5% pullback since late May could become an entry window; if it disappoints, high consensus itself becomes the risk.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.