AI Demand Creates 180 Million Km Fiber Optic Supply Gap, Shortage May Persist Until 2028
nashnova research
TrendForce forecasts a 180-million-fiber-kilometer global supply gap in 2026, driven by AI data-center buildouts — this means fiber optics has shifted from aging telecom infrastructure to a new AI bottleneck, with tightness lasting at least through 2028.
How big is the gap?
Global fiber demand is expected to reach 577 million fiber-kilometers this year; data centers account for 18%–20%, rising to 30%–35% by 2027.
This means → data centers are moving from a supporting role to the leading buyer in the fiber market — a structural shift in demand, not a temporary spike.
Global capacity utilization has hit 92%, inventories have dropped from four months in 2024 to just one month, and some leading suppliers are booked through Q1 2027.
In plain terms = factories are running nearly flat-out, warehouses are almost empty, and new orders are going to the back of a very long line.
How is this shortage different from past cycles?
TrendForce stresses this is not the cyclical swing typical of telecom buildouts — it reflects sustained incremental demand from AI data centers.
Chipmakers and telecom operators have joined hyperscale cloud providers in investing continuously in infrastructure — the buyer base itself is expanding, not just order volumes.
Expanding preform capacity — preforms are the glass rods from which optical fiber is drawn — typically takes 18 to 24 months.
This means → even if manufacturers break ground today, new supply won't arrive until late 2027 at the earliest; the gap has no near-term fix.
How much have prices risen?
TrendForce expects 2026 spot prices for finished fiber products to reach 2.8× to over 5× their 2025 levels, depending on the application.
Bend-insensitive fiber — a specialty fiber that can be sharply bent without signal loss, used inside data centers — sees the steepest increase at over 5× 2025 prices.
AI backbone fiber is projected at roughly 2.8×; mainstream telecom fiber at about 3.7×.
This reflects a clear pattern: the closer a fiber type sits to AI compute, the higher its premium — the market is paying more to be "nearer to the GPU."
How are large buyers responding?
Telecom operators have shifted from short-term procurement to long-term supply agreements, locking in fiber volumes years in advance.
Corning signed a deal with Verizon covering roughly 129 million fiber-kilometers of high-density fiber; the same month, it signed a separate agreement with AT&T worth over $3 billion for fiber and cable.
This means → top-tier buyers are stockpiling through contracts, pre-locking future capacity and leaving smaller, later entrants in a weaker negotiating position.
TrendForce expects such long-term agreements to become increasingly common — fiber procurement is shifting from spot-market logic to commodity-style forward contracting.
Which companies are positioned to benefit?
Corning (GLW) is the world's largest fiber supplier; its two mega-deals alone lock up massive production capacity.
Coherent (COHR) and Ciena (CIEN) focus on optical components and high-capacity networking gear, riding the data-center expansion wave.
Amphenol (APH) specializes in fiber connectors — a critical physical-layer supplier for data centers.
In plain terms = from making the glass strand to building the connectors to assembling the network, every link in the fiber supply chain is being pulled forward by AI demand.
How long can this cycle last?
TrendForce sees supply tightness persisting at least through 2028; the key variable is whether capacity expansion can catch up with demand growth.
Preform expansion takes 18–24 months, while AI compute investment is still accelerating — supply is chasing demand and, for now, falling behind.
This means → if AI infrastructure spending holds its current pace, fiber optics could remain a persistent "hard constraint" on the buildout for the next two to three years.
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