AI Fears Hit Stock-Picking Funds Hard: Lone Pine and Others Lose Over 8% in October
nashnova research
U.S. midterm results triggered an AI-funding panic, sending the Nasdaq down 5.5% in a day and wiping out months of gains at top stock-picking hedge funds — Lone Pine's 44% YTD gain evaporated into a 7% loss. This means → the market is casting a real-money vote of no confidence in the AI data-center buildout.
What triggered this sell-off?
The Democratic sweep in the midterms was read by the market as a referendum on new data-center construction. This means → the election itself wasn't the bear case — it lit a fuse under pre-existing AI-funding anxiety.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5% on Thursday, its steepest one-day drop since April 2025.
Chipmaker stocks took the hardest hit, placing the tech sector at the epicenter of the sell-off.
Who got hurt the worst?
Lone Pine Capital (Steve Mandel) lost roughly 9% in October. A YTD gain of 44% was wiped out entirely; the fund is now down ~7% for 2026. In plain terms = a full year of profits, gone in under a month — and then some.
Tiger Global's hedge fund fell 8.5%, nearly erasing its YTD gain. Its smaller crossover fund dropped 3.3% but still holds a 15.3% YTD return.
Whale Rock's flagship hybrid fund slid ~8%, trimming its 2026 gain to ~34%. Its long-only equity fund fell harder — down 12.3% in October.
How did Atreides and D1 fare?
Atreides Management's ~$3.4 billion flagship hybrid fund lost 9.5% in October, yet still shows ~43% YTD thanks to holdings in SpaceX and other private companies.
Atreides' smaller hedge fund was hit far worse — down 16% in October, shrinking its YTD gain to just 2.5%. This means → within the same firm, the more concentrated the public-equity exposure, the deeper the damage.
D1 Capital (Dan Sundheim) saw its equity book drop 4.4%, bringing its YTD return to 18.8%.
Who dodged the blow?
Coatue Management (Philippe Laffont) was a rare bright spot among stock pickers — up 0.2% in October and 13% YTD.
Multi-strategy funds split sharply: Citadel Wellington gained 1.7% and D.E. Shaw Composite rose 0.7%, while Balyasny fell 3.4%, Millennium dropped 2.3%, and ExodusPoint lost 2.4%.
Quant and macro funds saw milder losses overall. CFM Discus and Winton posted small gains, but Marshall Wace TOPS fell 3.6% and Kirkoswald dropped 6.4%.
What does this divergence tell us?
October's winners and losers came down to one variable: tech-stock concentration. The heavier the AI-theme exposure, the steeper the loss.
In plain terms = funds that put all their eggs in the AI basket got crushed; those that spread their bets weathered the storm.
This reflects a market shift from "unconditional AI bull" to "show me the returns." Upcoming data-center orders and tech earnings will determine whether these funds can claw back their losses.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。