Anthropic Follows Suit in Postponing IPO to 2027, SpaceX Post-Listing Stock Pullback Serves as Catalyst
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After OpenAI, Anthropic is also leaning toward delaying its IPO to 2027 — SpaceX's post-listing slide from $202 to $153 has shaken AI companies' confidence in near-term listings, effectively narrowing the 2026 AI-unicorn IPO window.
What happened to SpaceX after listing, and why did it spook AI companies?
SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history this month, raising over $85 billion at a Day 1 valuation of $1.77 trillion.
Its share price then slid from a high of $202 to $153 — a drop of roughly 24%.
This means → even a mega-benchmark like SpaceX couldn't hold its lofty IPO pricing. AI companies that had been using SpaceX as their reference point immediately switched from "sprint to list" to "wait and see."
Why does OpenAI insist on a trillion-dollar listing?
The New York Times reports that CEO Sam Altman told advisers to target a $1 trillion valuation at listing — above OpenAI's latest private-round valuation of $852 billion.
Advisers offered two paths: wait until 2027 to hit the trillion mark, or lower the target and list sooner. Altman was clear: cutting the valuation target is not acceptable.
In plain terms = Altman would rather wait two years than let the market see OpenAI as "listing at a discount." Polymarket odds for an OpenAI IPO in 2026 have dropped from above 50% to below 30%.
How is Anthropic's situation different?
Anthropic recently closed a new funding round at a $965 billion valuation, overtaking OpenAI as the world's most valuable AI startup.
It has also confidentially filed an IPO prospectus with the SEC and previously disclosed annualized recurring revenue (ARR — current revenue run-rate projected over a full year) of $47 billion.
That figure, however, has drawn skepticism for including significant non-GAAP adjustments — non-GAAP meaning a "flattering" set of financials that strips out certain costs. This means → the real quality of Anthropic's revenue hasn't yet survived market scrutiny, making a forced listing risky.
Both delaying at once — what does it mean for the market?
With both leading AI companies pushing back, the 2026 AI-unicorn IPO window has materially narrowed.
Global markets have turned more volatile recently, with tech stocks dragging major indices and investors growing more skeptical of AI companies' ability to deliver on sky-high valuations.
This reflects a deeper question: whether the market can support trillion-dollar pricing in 2027 depends on whether AI commercialization revenue can build sustainable growth in the meantime — the central test of today's AI valuation logic.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.