Anthropic IPO Faces Hurdles in Asia; Investors Turn to Proxy Plays Like TSMC
nashnova research
Anthropic is going public at roughly $1.5 trillion, but Asian investors have almost no path to a direct allocation. Capital is now flowing into three proxy trades — chip suppliers, listed shareholders, and crypto derivatives — each carrying its own sector risk.
Why can't Asian investors buy Anthropic directly?
Japan and Australia are included in the international tranche, yet high demand and various restrictions leave Asian investors with virtually no chance of a direct allocation.
This means → Asian capital that wants Anthropic exposure must take a detour through proxies — companies or products tied closely to the company.
Bloomberg reports three directions of flow: listed shareholders, chip and hardware suppliers, and crypto derivatives.
The chip supply chain — why is it the biggest indirect bet?
Anthropic's prospectus shows its roughly $800 billion compute buildout depends heavily on advanced chips made by TSMC (台積電), and flags TSMC supply constraints as a key risk.
SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are named in the prospectus as primary suppliers of HBM — high-bandwidth memory, a type of high-speed memory chip purpose-built for heavy AI workloads.
In plain terms = the bulk of Anthropic's spending flows to chipmakers and memory makers. Buying their stock is an indirect way to share in Anthropic's compute investment.
Listed shareholders — who already holds Anthropic equity?
SK Telecom invested early; its stake is now worth several billion dollars. The stock rose 9% over the past two trading days but remains well below its June peak.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia bought in over a year ago; the stake was valued above $1 billion as of end-June. The stock is up about 8% this month.
NEC (日本電氣) became Anthropic's first global partner in Japan in April and has rallied 45% from its June low. This means → the market is already pricing "who holds Anthropic shares," but whether the gains stick depends on Anthropic's own post-IPO performance.
Crypto derivatives — can you bet on the valuation without holding stock?
OKX launched perpetual futures tied to Anthropic in May — a contract with no expiry date that lets traders hold positions indefinitely. Binance followed in June.
On Hyperliquid's EntropyIO platform, Anthropic-linked perpetual futures imply a valuation of roughly $1.88 trillion — above the IPO price.
In plain terms = crypto platforms let you wager on Anthropic's valuation without buying a single share. But these products carry crypto-market volatility risk — a separate beast from Anthropic's fundamentals.
Does the proxy strategy actually hold up?
Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee, is cautious: "People might be better served sticking with Anthropic's suppliers."
He notes Anthropic is a loss-making company with a highly uncertain path to profitability, facing intense competition and development bottlenecks.
This reflects the core tension of the proxy trade — indirect bets introduce sector risks unrelated to Anthropic itself, and whether this mega Nasdaq listing wins market approval remains an open question.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。