Anthropic Secondary Market Valuation Surges to $1.2 Trillion with Scarce Sellers and Rare Transactions
0xBroomberg
Anthropic's secondary-market valuation has reached $1.2 trillion, up ~20% in under three months and 550% year-on-year — yet sellers are nearly impossible to find, turning every pre-IPO share into a bidding war.
Where does the $1.2 trillion figure come from?
Two platforms confirm the number: Caplight and Rainmaker Securities both report trades closing at a $1.2 trillion valuation.
Less than three months ago, Anthropic first crossed $1 trillion. Its last official round — the May Series H — valued the company at just $96.5 billion.
This means → the secondary market is now pricing Anthropic roughly 24% above its most recent official fundraise, and the gap is still widening.
Why is almost no one willing to sell?
Caplight co-founder and CEO Javier Avalos calls Anthropic "the most in-demand company in the history of venture secondaries."
Rainmaker Securities CEO Glen Anderson confirms: demand far exceeds supply, and "almost no one is willing to sell — trades are extremely rare."
In plain terms = employees and early investors are betting the IPO will price even higher. Selling now means handing that upside to someone else.
Why is Anthropic warning against SPVs?
With regular channels almost dry, buyers are turning to SPVs — special-purpose vehicles that pool multiple investors into a single transaction.
Anthropic has posted a warning on its website: "If anyone offers you any form of indirect Anthropic investment, assume it is invalid."
This means → SPV structures carry the risk of being voided by Anthropic after the fact. One investor, Martin, says he only participates in "first-layer" SPVs where the seller's identity can be verified, to reduce that risk.
OpenAI demand is also rising — what does the landscape look like?
Anderson notes that OpenAI buy interest was limited a month ago, but surged after the GPT-5.6 series — flagship "Sol" and budget "Terra" — went public.
Current ratio: for every 2 buyers seeking OpenAI shares, there are 5 buyers seeking Anthropic shares. OpenAI's Caplight valuation sits at $908 billion.
This reflects a broader warming across the AI secondary market, but Anthropic still dominates with roughly 2.5× the buyer density.
Can this valuation actually hold?
Matt Murphy, partner at early backer Menlo Ventures, calls the secondary-market valuation a "noisy signal" and does not treat it as a core reference.
Yet he concedes that Anthropic's revenue figures, disclosed before its IPO quiet period, are "well ahead of the full-year plan" — the enthusiasm has fundamental support.
In plain terms = the $1.2 trillion is a price driven by both sentiment and scarcity. The real test is whether the IPO can price at a level that validates it.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.