Apple Earnings Preview: Storage Costs Pressure Profits, iPhone Duo Sales in Focus
nashnova research
Apple is about to report CEO John Ternus's first quarterly earnings, with revenue forecast at $113.39 billion but profit growth slowing to its weakest in six quarters — memory-chip inflation, Duo foldable demand, and decelerating services will dominate the call.
Why is profit growth suddenly lagging?
Analysts expect Apple's quarterly revenue to rise roughly 11% year-on-year, yet net income grows only about 6% to $29.04 billion. Revenue climbs fast; profit does not — costs are eating the difference.
This means → memory chips (the components that store data inside phones) have surged in price, squeezing how much Apple earns on every device it sells.
Tim Cook previously called the memory-cost spike a "hundred-year flood." This quarter is the floodwater cresting.
iPhone Duo sold out instantly — but is everything fine?
Duo is Apple's first foldable, priced from $1,999. It launched October 23 and online orders sold out within minutes. Bank of America estimates buyers face an average 79-day wait, with shipments stretching into January.
In plain terms = this is not "selling well" — it is "can't buy one even if you want to." Supply is far behind demand.
Some buyers report cracks and lines along the inner-screen fold. Apple is offering replacements, but supply is already tight. This means → every replacement unit consumed is one fewer new sale shipped — the market will watch swap turnaround times as a proxy for Duo's real sales quality.
Is overall iPhone growth slowing down?
Total iPhone revenue is forecast to rise about 15% to $56.54 billion — decent on its own, but the prior three quarters averaged roughly 22% growth.
This means → growth is still there, but momentum is fading. This quarter captures only 9 days of new iPhone 18 Pro sales; Duo's real contribution shows up in the holiday quarter.
Services — is Apple's most profitable engine losing speed?
Services revenue (App Store, iCloud, Apple Music and other subscriptions) is expected to grow nearly 10% to $31.56 billion — the slowest pace in over three years.
This reflects a high-margin business approaching its growth ceiling. Investors are starting to question whether it can keep expanding.
Can AI actually make Apple money?
Apple positions its AI as a product for "ordinary people," emphasizing trust and privacy — distinct from the frontier-model path taken by OpenAI and peers.
The question investors really care about: can Apple distribute third-party AI agents — autonomous programs that complete tasks for users — through the App Store and take a cut of every transaction? In plain terms = Apple does not need to build the best AI itself; if other companies' agents sell through Apple's store and Apple clips the ticket, services get a new growth lane.
Apple stock is up about 27% this year, outperforming Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon — partly because it has not poured money into AI infrastructure, sidestepping fears of an AI spending arms race. But how AI turns into revenue, and how services growth recovers, are the core pressures new CEO Ternus cannot dodge on his first earnings call.
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