Apple's Stock Price Hits a Record High, Boosting the Supply Chain

Apple Inc. (AAPL.O) shares rose more than 1% on Wednesday, reaching new historical highs. Building on the strong financial results announced last week, market attention has turned to two more forward-looking drivers: the inventory restocking cycle starting in the second half of the year, and the anticipation for Apple Intelligence brought by the approaching Apple Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC).

Apple's financial performance for the second fiscal quarter last week comprehensively exceeded expectations—with revenue growing 17% year-over-year to $111.2 billion, a gross margin of 49.3%, and guidance for a 14%-17% increase in the June quarter, significantly higher than the market's expected 9%. However, analysts from multiple institutions have pointed out that the financial report itself is "old news," and the real engine behind the current stock price rise comes from the dual-rotation drive of the supply chain and software.

2H26 Restocking Cycle: Supply Chain Faces Order Window

A recent Citi Research report indicates that Apple's supply chain will face a systematic restocking window in 2H26, with the iPhone 18 series (including the new folding screen models) set to begin mass production in June to July, and relevant component manufacturers have already started to receive orders in batches.

Citi estimates the total annual iPhone EMS production for 2026 to be approximately **250 million units**, maintaining the high point of 2025, supported by Apple's continuous expansion of market share amid memory shortages affecting Android competitors—Apple's iPhone shipments in China surged by 33.3% in 1Q26, with the global market share rising to 21.1%.

In this context, Citi prioritizes three core supply chain targets:

Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (**Target Price: 77 RMB**) is seen as Apple's most resilient OEM partner. Analysts note that the rise in memory prices has a relatively limited impact on Luxshare, while its notebook ODM business continues to capture market share, and Google's telecommunications business as well as OpenAI smart device orders are expected to add new volume in the 2026 to 2027 period, with a 27% EPS CAGR (2024-2027) supporting a valuation premium.

Cowell (**Target Price: 42 HKD**) is the most direct beneficiary of this round of folding screen upgrades. Analysts predict that Cowell's allocation for the iPhone 18 folding screen periscope module is expected to increase to **50%**, while ultra-wide-angle camera modules switch from a second-half-year to a full-year shipment, which will significantly boost annual revenue when combined.

Lans Tech H-shares (**Target Price: 27 HKD**) is expected to accelerate materialization by 2027. Analysts say that folding screen cover glass will start making a scaled contribution this year, and the iPhone 20th anniversary edition (expected to adopt a titanium metal casing and 3D glass on both sides) will form a larger volume of purchasing orders in 2027, with the H-shares currently trading at a discount of about 25%-26% compared to A-shares, offering room for valuation repair.

Siri Upgrade as a Major Catalyst

Another market nerve is tense at Apple's annual developer conference (WWDC). Bernstein analyst Mark Newman explicitly lists "major updates to Siri and Apple Intelligence" as "the next major catalyst for Apple's stock price," noting that Apple, with its unique edge AI advantages, is expected to become one of the AI winners without needing to match massive-scale investments.

Apple's R&D expenditure for FQ2 soared to **$11.4 billion**, accounting for 10.3% of revenue, a significant increase from the previous quarter's 7.6%, reflecting the pace of its increased investment in AI and chip domains. While the management did not disclose specific content for WWDC, they have confirmed that there will be a "significant" Siri functionality update this year.

Bernstein believes that once the product power of Apple Intelligence is validated by the market, it will further strengthen Apple's appeal in the high-end replacement cycle, providing software support for the continued increase in ASP (Average Selling Price)—the firm estimates that the iPhone ASP will rise from FY26E's $977 to **$1,120** in FY27E.