Asian Crude Oil Imports Rebound but Refined Product Supply Remains Tight, Keeping Fuel Prices Elevated
Claire Weston
Asia's June crude imports rebounded to 22.18 million b/d, yet refined-product exports remain 13% below pre-conflict levels — gasoline, diesel and jet fuel are still 20-30% more expensive than before the Strait of Hormuz was blocked.
How far has crude recovered — and how far is "normal"?
Kpler data show Asia's June crude imports at roughly 22.18 million b/d, up from 20.35 million in May. This means → oil is flowing back after the Strait reopened.
But the figure is still well below the 26.76 million b/d three-month pre-conflict average — a 17% gap remains.
In April, when the Strait was physically shut, imports fell to 18.77 million b/d — an eight-year low. In plain terms = the climb from the bottom has started, but the top is still a long way off.
Why has China's import drop been sharper?
Kpler tracking puts China's June seaborne crude arrivals at just 5.76 million b/d. May was 6.78 million. The pre-conflict average was 11.37 million b/d — nearly halved.
May seaborne imports hit the lowest since February 2018. This reflects a deliberate pullback: China is not unable to buy — it is choosing not to at these prices.
In plain terms = most Asian importers bought less because supply chains broke; China's cutback is more of a price protest.
Crude is recovering — why are pump prices still high?
Asian refiners are expected to export about 9.20 million b/d of light and middle distillates in June, up from the April low of 6.28 million but still 13% below the pre-conflict average of 10.56 million b/d.
This means → crude has arrived, but refining it into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel takes time. A processing bottleneck sits in the middle — refined-product inventories across several countries have been drawn down and restocking is incomplete.
The price gap tells the story: Brent crude is 11.2% above pre-conflict, while gasoline is up 30.6%, diesel 22.1% and jet fuel 20.4%. Put simply = crude rises one notch, the fuel you actually buy rises three.
Refiners are flush — will that speed up the fix?
A typical Singapore refinery crack spread — the margin from turning crude into products — sits at roughly $11.51 per barrel, about 34% above the past-year average of $8.59.
This means → fat margins are the strongest incentive for refiners to crank up utilisation — more money, more motivation to run flat out.
Full recovery to pre-war levels, however, hinges on two hard conditions: sustained crude flow through the Strait of Hormuz and a durable US-Iran ceasefire.
What signal should you watch to gauge what comes next?
A Reuters columnist notes that tracking actual vessel movements through the Strait matters more than monitoring social-media statements from either side.
In plain terms = rhetoric on Twitter can whip crude futures intraday, but the medium-term supply picture depends on how many tankers actually transit the chokepoint.
Near-term bottom line: the worst is past for crude supply, but retail fuel prices will take months to come back down — consumers and airlines will have to absorb elevated costs a while longer.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.