ASML Raises Full-Year 2026 Guidance; 2027 EUV Orders Nearly Fully Booked
N.R. Finch
ASML posted Q2 net sales of €9.3 billion at a 54% gross margin, beating guidance on both counts; the company lifted its 2026 revenue outlook to €43–45 billion and revealed that 2027 EUV orders are nearly all in hand — signaling sustained upward pressure on how the market prices its forward earnings.
Where did the quarter beat?
Q2 net sales hit €9.3 billion with a 54% gross margin, both above prior guidance.
The main upside driver was installed-base management — upgrades and servicing of machines already in the field — which delivered €2.8 billion, some €300 million above expectations. This means → customers are not just buying new tools; they are pushing hard to squeeze more output from existing ones.
Net income came in at €2.9 billion, already accounting for technology and IT transformation costs.
Why raise the full-year outlook?
ASML lifted its 2026 full-year net sales forecast to €43–45 billion, with gross margin expected at 54%–56%.
CEO Christophe Fouquet cited two reasons: sustained strong customer demand, and ASML's own supply chain and field-installation teams being able to keep pace.
In plain terms = customers want to buy and ASML can confirm it can build and install — both sides of the equation are accelerating at once.
Logic and memory — which is pulling demand?
Advanced logic: customers are ramping hard at 5 nm / 4 nm / 3 nm, 2 nm is scaling at record speed, and some customers have begun planning 1.4 nm capacity. ASML expects 2026 advanced-logic revenue to grow roughly 25%.
Memory: both DDR and HBM — high-bandwidth memory, a critical component for AI chips — are undersupplied, pushing customers to accelerate capacity plans. Newer nodes require more lithography steps, lifting demand for both EUV and advanced immersion DUV. ASML expects 2026 memory revenue to grow 75%.
This means → memory is growing at three times the rate of logic, reflecting that AI-driven HBM demand is becoming the fastest-growing pillar inside ASML's revenue mix.
How many EUV and DUV systems ship this year?
ASML plans to deliver roughly 65 low-NA EUV systems in 2026; EUV revenue is expected to grow about 45%.
Immersion DUV shipments are planned at roughly 130 units, flat with 2025; dry DUV demand is also strong, with deliveries set to rise meaningfully.
Installed-base management is forecast to grow more than 30% for the full year. This reflects the fact that upgrades take little tool downtime and deliver immediate productivity gains — a key driver behind gross-margin improvement.
How solid is the 2027–2028 order book?
Orders needed for 2027 have been nearly all received; ASML plans to raise 2027 EUV capacity roughly 30% above 2026 levels.
Substantial EUV orders for 2028 are already in hand; the company is studying whether to lift 2028 EUV capacity by another 30%. Immersion DUV capacity is also planned to expand 30% per year in both 2027 and 2028.
Put simply = 2027 is not here yet and the order book is nearly full; 2028 orders are already flowing in. This is exceptionally rare in semiconductor equipment, signaling very high downstream certainty about the expansion cycle.
What about China and the next catalysts?
China is still expected to account for roughly 20% of net sales, in line with prior guidance; incremental demand is mainly from logic, serving local-market needs.
ASML will hold its next Capital Markets Day on June 10, 2027, where it will reassess the market environment and update its long-term outlook.
This means → with order visibility sharply improved, the market's pricing of ASML's forward earnings faces sustained revision pressure heading into that event.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.