AST Earnings Forecast, Focus on Launch Rhythm and Commercial Timeline

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.O), a satellite-to-cellular network operator, is set to release its financial results for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2026 after the US market close on Monday. The company's stock price jumped 14.84% on the last trading day before the report, and options markets are pricing a post-earnings volatility of up to 13.2%, significantly higher than the historical average of 3.33%, indicating that investors are betting the conference call will release a catalyst for direction.

According to sell-side consensus, the company is expected to report revenues of $39 million, an adjusted loss per share of $0.23, an EBITDA loss of $52.7 million, and free cash flow outflow of $459.6 million for the quarter. Revenues are up against an extremely low year-over-year base, with a theoretical growth rate of approximately 5333%.

The market reaction to this earnings report will have little correlation with earnings per share itself. The true determinant of the stock price direction will be whether the management can confirm during the conference call that the BlueBird satellite is on schedule to roll out and launch, the first New Glenn mission is counting down, the commercial service activation timeline for the second half of 2026 remains unchanged, and whether the cash situation can support the company in avoiding a new round of equity financing within the year.

Constellation Scale-up is the Valuation Anchor

AST SpaceMobile achieved its first revenue in 2025, with total annual revenue of about $70.9 million, at the upper end of the company's guidance range of $50–$75 million. Revenue in the previous quarter (Q4 FY2025) was $54.3 million, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of $41.8 million, but the loss per share of $0.26 was worse than the expected -$0.18. The stock price increased by 6.63% after that report, reflecting that investors were more focused on the delivery of Gateway bulk deliveries rather than earnings per share.

The current core valuation of AST SpaceMobile is anchored on the goal of deploying 45 to 60 Block 2 BlueBird satellites in orbit by the end of 2026. The management reiterated in the last conference call that "nearly 60 ready for delivery, 45 in orbit" is the company's current internal target, and they expect to schedule a launch every 1 to 2 months. The first New Glenn heavy-lift mission (carrying BlueBird 7) was originally scheduled for March, and the market widely expects management to provide specific progress during this conference call.

The volume of the Block 2 BlueBird is about 3.5 times that of the previous generation, with a capacity of about 10 times. The company said that by the end of 2025, it had expanded its Micron phased array monthly production capacity to support six satellites per month and plans to complete the assembly of 40 satellite equivalents of Micron in the first half of 2026, corresponding to BlueBird 46.

Full-Year Guidance and Commercialization Timeline are Key

The company's current 2026 fiscal year revenue guidance range is $150 million to $200 million, emphasizing a "minimum doubling compared to 2025." The consensus breakdown for the four quarters is about $171 million, at the lower mid-point level of the guidance range.

Several analysts have pointed out that the market will pay close attention to whether the management adjusts this range and whether it distinguishes more clearly the proportion of government contracts from commercial Gateway sales.

The consensus estimates the company will achieve positive EBITDA for the first time in the first quarter of FY2027, reaching $8.6 million, with revenues jumping to $104 million. This time window is highly coupled with the company's target of "commercial service activation in the second half of 2026." If the activation timeline is delayed, the revenue realization path for FY2027 will face re-evaluation.

As of Q4 FY2025, the company has established cooperation with more than 50 mobile network operators and has signed final commercial agreements (DCAs) with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, and Saudi stc Group. STC paid the company a prepayment of $175 million in 2025. The management stated that cumulatively signed minimum guaranteed contract revenue exceeds $1 billion.

Government Contracts Provide Early Reliable Revenue

The US government business is regarded by management as "early revenue that can be contributed without relying on a complete constellation." The company has previously signed 10 government