Average Yearly Increase of 88% for SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI

This is the biggest irony of this AI cycle: liquidity returns, the IPO window reopens, market sentiment surges, but the asset with the strongest increase is not even on the exchange.

According to secondary private market data, the average increase since 2026 in the over-the-counter market for SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI has reached 88%. This most explosive equity trend is quietly happening out of reach for ordinary investors.

The comparison in scale is staggering. Analyst Bobby Molavi pointed out that the combined valuation of just these three companies has approached $3.5 to 4 trillion, exceeding the total market value after the IPO listing of 2,600 companies during the peak of the internet bubble from 1995 to 2000 (about $3 trillion), and is also equivalent to 50% of the total market value of 9,000 companies' IPOs over nearly half a century from 1946 to 1994 (about $7.8 trillion).

The IPO window is indeed reopening. Goldman Sachs says the current macro environment is "favorable" for IPOs, and its IPO barometer is high.

But Goldman Sachs analyst Ben Snider threw a bucket of cold water: Even if these giants eventually go public, there is no need to worry about impacting the market because the proportion of shares they plan to issue is quite small, and the impact relative to the overall scale of the stock market is limited, similar to other large IPOs in the past decades, and no large IPO in history has truly "disrupted" the market.

The combined valuation of the top ten venture capital-backed private companies in the United States is about $3 trillion. This means that when these companies eventually enter the public market, public investors will be taking over an asset that has already been fully priced, or even at a premium.

The public market used to be the financier of innovation, now it is just an inheritor - and the kind that will take over at a higher price.