Bank of America: More Global Central Bank Rate Cuts Than Hikes, But Momentum明显 Slows
Claire Weston
Global central banks have cut rates 31 times this year versus 12 hikes — easing still dominates, but the window for further cuts is narrowing as some banks turn hawkish.
More cuts than hikes — what does the scoreboard actually tell us?
Global central banks have delivered 31 rate cuts versus 12 hikes year-to-date, per BofA Global Research. Easing remains the majority stance.
But the ratio has narrowed sharply. This means → the era of synchronized global easing is ending; central banks are diverging.
In plain terms = the direction is still down, but the pace has slowed visibly.
Why did developed markets hit the brakes first?
BofA's three-month rolling data shows developed-market central banks have shifted back toward neutral. The bar for further cuts is rising.
Two forces are stacking: the disinflation phase that justified earlier cuts is largely over, and energy-price shocks from the Middle East conflict are pushing up producer and consumer prices.
This reflects a simple dynamic — once inflation stops falling on its own, central bank confidence in easing drops fast. Some have already tilted hawkish.
Can emerging markets keep cutting?
Emerging markets are still at an earlier stage of the easing cycle than developed markets, with relatively more room to cut.
But BofA flags the same trend: even in emerging markets, the rate-cutting path is less clear than it was a few months ago.
Put simply = emerging-market central banks still have ammunition, but they are hesitating longer before pulling the trigger.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.