Barclays Cuts Brent Crude Forecasts: $96 for 2026, $85 for 2027
N.R. Finch
Barclays on Friday cut its 2026 Brent crude target from $100 to $96/bbl, citing recovering oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz; UBS issued a parallel downgrade the same day, signaling a broader market repricing of supply risk.
What exactly did Barclays change?
The 2026 Brent target drops from $100/bbl to $96/bbl; the 2027 target from $88 to $85.
The core reason: oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint carrying roughly a fifth of global crude shipments — are recovering, easing the supply-squeeze narrative.
This means → Barclays believes the tightest moment has passed and the "war premium" in crude is fading.
What changed at the Strait?
Crude shipments through Hormuz this week rose to the highest level since the US-Israel–Iran conflict erupted in late February.
Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura terminal — one of Saudi Arabia's largest export hubs — resumed loading after nearly four months offline.
In plain terms = the "oil artery" that war had blocked is reopening; tankers are moving again — and crude posted a weekly decline as a result.
Will prices keep falling?
Barclays cautions: even if strait flows normalize in the coming days, inventories may keep drawing down for weeks.
The reason is a lag effect — open shipping lanes do not equal instant full production at the wellhead.
The bank sees a supply-demand deficit persisting into Q3 2026. This means → the downside has a floor; prices are unlikely to free-fall.
UBS cut too — what is the market pricing?
UBS on Thursday cut its end-September Brent target from $105 to $85 and its end-December target from $95 to $85.
Two major banks moving in the same direction, at the same time: the repricing of improved supply is accelerating.
This reflects a market pivot — from "geopolitical conflict drives oil higher" to "supply recovery pulls oil lower." The wind has shifted.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.