Barclays: Humanoid Robot Market to Reach $200 Billion by 2035
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Barclays projects the humanoid robot market will surge from roughly $2–3 billion today to $200 billion by 2035 — a roughly 100× leap that signals a new trillion-dollar supply chain forming across manufacturing and services.
A 100× jump — where does the money come from and go?
Barclays thematic FICC research head Zornitza Todorova told CNBC the humanoid robot market sits at roughly $2–3 billion today and will reach $200 billion by 2035.
This means → the trajectory is not linear growth but a phase shift — from lab prototypes to mass production — much like EVs a decade ago.
SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son said the same week that physical AI and robotics will produce the next trillion-dollar company. Two major voices placing the same bet is a clear signal.
Two waves of deployment — what does the rollout look like?
Barclays' report *AI Gets Physical* frames humanoid robots as "Automation 3.0", deployed in two waves: before 2030, manufacturing, logistics, agriculture, and construction; after 2030, healthcare, eldercare, education, and hospitality.
In plain terms = the first wave handles repetitive physical tasks — moving boxes, picking items off a line. The second wave enters scenarios requiring real-time adaptability.
Todorova noted humanoid robots can already perform simple tasks like carrying and line-picking, directly filling labor-shortage gaps.
She argued that as models improve real-time responsiveness, services will become the core opportunity in Western markets — because services are the primary engine of Western economic growth.
Why does China dominate so heavily?
China accounted for 85% of global humanoid robot installations last year. Its industrial robot installations hit roughly 300,000 units, versus just 34,000 in the U.S. — nearly a 9× gap.
Since 2016, China's robot density has risen 600%, reaching nearly 500 robots per 10,000 workers.
This reflects more than high adoption — the entire chain, from components to finished machines to deployment know-how, is clustering in China at accelerating speed.
On cost, the gap is just as stark: Chinese-made robots sell for around $50,000, roughly half the price of Western rivals.
How are investors positioning?
Jupiter Asset Management's Asia Income Fund manager Jason Pidcock, overseeing £2.75 billion (about $3.69 billion), predicts "in 10 years, humanoid robots will be everywhere."
The fund is heavily weighted toward MediaTek, TSMC, Samsung, and Foxconn — a bet that Asia will sit at the front of the supply chain.
This means → the smart-money logic is simple: regardless of which robot brand ultimately wins, upstream chips and contract manufacturing benefit either way — the same "sell the shovels" thesis from every prior tech cycle.
The fund posted a one-year return of 49.2% through end-April this year.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.