Barclays: Humanoid Robots May Offset China's 60% Decline in Labor Force

Barclays analysts Zornitsa Todorova and others pointed out in a report that the anticipated increase in productivity in the coming years “can only offset a small part of the expected decline in China's labor force” and is difficult to fully hedge against demographic headwinds. The bank combines demographic forecast data and assumes the labor force participation rate remains at 65%, estimating that China's labor force will decrease by about 37 million people over the next decade.

Barclays believes that humanoid robots can serve as an important hedging tool: under the current pace of innovation and deployment, their cumulative application scale is expected to cover about 60% of the projected labor gap. Consequently, the economic importance of automation and robotics as key means to alleviate labor tension has significantly increased.

Barclays optimistically estimates that by 2035, the cumulative number of humanoid robots installed in China may approach 24 million units, equivalent to nearly 4% of the total labor force. Analysts wrote in the report:

“This is the decade of the robot era, and it belongs to China.”

Demographic changes are reinforcing this judgment.