Barclays Maintains $100 Forecast for 2026 Brent Crude Oil Average

Barclays maintained its forecast for the average Brent crude oil price of $100 per barrel in 2026 on Friday, but also emphasized that oil price risks have skewed higher. The Brent crude oil futures hover around $105/bbl now, and the market is still digesting the slow progress of peace talks between the US and Iran and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Barclays stated in the report that the current inventory trend shows a global supply gap of 6 million to 8 million barrels per day in the crude oil market, and US crude oil inventory has reached the lowest level since 2020. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, in the most optimistic scenario, the inventory level will still be about 20 million barrels lower than the most recent tight level.

The core of supply shock is still the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, about 20% of the world's crude oil was transported through the strait. At present, the daily 14 million barrels of supply from countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait have exited the market, accounting for about 14% of global supply.

There is currently no significant suppression of oil prices on the demand side. Barclays believes that demand still has overall resilience, and if supply quickly normalizations, weak downstream demand related to industrial activities may also recover strongly.