Barclays Upgrades Tesla to Overweight with $450 Price Target
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Barclays upgraded Tesla to overweight with a $450 price target — up from $370 — implying roughly 21% upside; the move is driven by growing expectations of a Tesla–SpaceX merger, reinforced by improving fundamentals across autos, energy storage, and robotaxis.
Why is Barclays upgrading now?
Analyst Dan Levy raised Tesla from equal-weight to overweight, lifting the target from $370 to $450.
The core catalyst: a potential Tesla–SpaceX merger. Musk said last week the idea is a "good one," and both companies have formed committees to explore it.
This means → Barclays expects the market to price in a merger premium — an extra lift in the stock simply because investors anticipate the deal — and that premium is the main source of upside.
Has the auto business bottomed?
Tesla car sales declined for two straight years, but Barclays expects a return to growth this year.
Two growth drivers kick in by 2027: demand pulled by Full Self-Driving (FSD — the software that lets the car drive itself) and higher exports from the Shanghai Gigafactory.
In plain terms = the worst stretch for car sales may be over, with software revenue and Chinese factory exports providing the two legs forward.
How much support can energy storage and robotaxis add?
Energy storage: Tesla disclosed that its 2027 storage products are nearly sold out; strong data-center demand could push shipments up by more than 50%.
Robotaxis: ride-hail miles hit a clear inflection point, giving Levy more confidence that Tesla can compete with rival Waymo.
This means → these "new" businesses are no longer just narratives — real orders and real data are starting to underpin valuation.
How divided is Wall Street?
Of 49 analysts covering Tesla, 25 rate it buy or strong buy while 22 hold — opinion is almost evenly split.
The stock is down more than 17% year-to-date; a real recovery in valuation still needs merger progress and business growth to validate it.
In plain terms = there is no Wall Street consensus on Tesla yet — bulls are betting on the merger and a growth inflection, while holders see too much uncertainty, and neither side has won the argument.
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