Bernstein Bullish on NAURA and AMEC, Maintains "Outperform" Rating
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Bernstein maintained outperform ratings on NAURA, AMEC, and Piotech, arguing that China's semiconductor-equipment component localization has entered a second phase — driven not by geopolitics but by supply shortages forcing domestic sourcing.
Why is localization entering a "second phase"?
Bernstein defines the current phase as "shortage-driven": Japanese and European suppliers face lengthening lead times on critical components, pushing Chinese equipment makers to adopt domestic alternatives faster.
This means → the engine has changed. Phase one was "switch before you get cut off." Phase two is "switch because the imports aren't arriving."
In plain terms = policy used to push; now the market pulls — a harder logic.
The firm sees the bottleneck in capacity and customer qualification timelines, not in insurmountable technical gaps, and expects it to ease within one to two quarters.
How fast will localization rates climb?
Bernstein forecasts China's wafer-fab equipment self-sufficiency rate: 23% in 2025 → 28% in 2026 → 37% in 2027 → 52% in 2028.
This means → the rate more than doubles in three years; by 2028, over half of equipment is domestically supplied.
Global wafer-fab equipment spending is also surging: $154 billion in 2026 (+26.3% YoY), $204 billion in 2027 (+32.6%), $259 billion in 2028.
China's share of that demand: $57 billion, $73 billion, and $101 billion for 2026–2028 respectively, a ~26% CAGR from 2025.
What does AMEC's supply-chain shift reveal?
AMEC's (中微公司) share of mainland Chinese suppliers by count: 72% in 2022 → 87% in 2025. European and U.S. suppliers fell from 6% to 3% over the same period.
This reflects a rapid "de-Westernization" of the equipment supply chain — and the trend is still accelerating.
In plain terms = three years ago, 6 out of every 100 AMEC suppliers came from Europe or the U.S. Now it is 3. Localization is not a slogan; it is already a fact.
Where are the next investment opportunities?
Bernstein highlights four key component segments: RF power supplies, vacuum systems, mass flow controllers, and electrostatic chucks — all share low localization rates and high technical barriers.
RF power: Yingjie Electric and Hengyunchang have made progress in customer qualification. Vacuum: Xinlai, Zhongke Keyi, and Kunpeng Tech stand to benefit.
Mass flow controllers: NAURA and Gaokai Tech are accelerating qualification. Electrostatic chucks: Kema Tech is making steady breakthroughs.
This means → these four are "zero-to-one" substitution stories — the highest upside, but also the longest qualification cycles.
Which segments are already ahead?
Quartz parts, ceramic structural components, precision metal machining, and some consumables already have relatively high localization rates.
Key names include Fujian Fuchang Precision, Pioneer Jingke, KFMI, and Feilihua.
This means → growth in these "one-to-N" segments depends more on total Chinese equipment orders expanding than on new substitution share — the logic shifts from "gaining share" to "the pie getting bigger."
Where are the risks?
RF power supplies and electrostatic chucks directly affect process stability and yield. Even when specs are met, wafer fabs require long-term reliability qualification.
Line yields, shortages of experienced technicians, and cross-platform compatibility requirements may all limit suppliers' actual delivery capacity.
In plain terms = making the part is one thing; convincing a fab to rely on it long-term is another — the qualification cycle is the real hurdle.
Bernstein itself flags that whether localization rates hit their projected milestones will be the key test of the entire thesis.
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