Bernstein Bullish on Robinhood: World Cup Boosts Prediction Market Volume, Related Revenue Could Surge 286%
Miles Bennett
Bernstein projects Robinhood's prediction-market revenue will surge from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026 — a 286% jump — as the FIFA World Cup pushes an emerging asset class into the mainstream.
How big is the World Cup volume spike?
Just two days into the FIFA World Cup, prediction-market daily volume jumped from $2.2 billion to $4.8 billion.
This means → single-day volume has already tripled the prior Super Bowl peak of $1.4 billion.
In plain terms = the Super Bowl was the biggest traffic event prediction markets had ever seen. The World Cup blew past it on day two.
What does 286% revenue growth really mean?
Bernstein forecasts Robinhood's prediction-market revenue rising from $150 million to $586 million, reaching roughly 17% of trading revenue and 10% of total revenue.
This reflects a shift: prediction markets are no longer a fringe experiment — they are now Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue line.
Robinhood (HOOD) rose 3.84% in Monday pre-market trading. The market is pricing in this growth curve.
Why is Robinhood ahead of the pack?
The key moat is its partnership with Rothera — a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse (meaning it operates under U.S. commodity-futures regulation).
In just 18 days since launch, Rothera has processed roughly 200 million contracts, with FIFA World Cup and MLB events driving nearly 100% of volume.
On pricing, Robinhood charges $0.01 per contract; Gold subscribers get up to a 50% fee discount. In plain terms = a massive user base plus rock-bottom commissions give Robinhood a distribution edge that is hard to replicate.
What are competitors doing?
The prediction-market landscape is expanding fast: Polymarket launched private-company event contracts, and Kalshi rolled out CFTC-regulated crypto perpetual futures — contracts with no expiry date — recording $1 billion in volume within one week.
Bernstein also flagged DraftKings and Coinbase as public companies poised to benefit from World Cup-driven volume.
This means → the World Cup is not just a Robinhood story — it is injecting growth into the entire prediction-market industry. Bernstein estimates the tournament will generate over $3 billion in incremental wagers and $5–10 billion in additional consumer trading volume.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.