Bernstein: Robinhood's Prediction Market Business Could Generate $1.7B Revenue by 2028, Surpassing Crypto
nashnova research
Bernstein projects Robinhood's prediction-market business will generate roughly $1.7 billion in revenue by 2028, surpassing crypto for the first time — a sign the zero-commission trading app is betting its next growth engine on an entirely new product line.
What are prediction markets, and why do they suddenly matter?
Prediction markets — platforms where users wager on real-world outcomes, such as election results — are now Robinhood's fastest-growing business line.
Bernstein forecasts the segment's revenue will rise from roughly $650 million this year to $1.7 billion by 2028, nearly tripling in three years.
This means → prediction markets are no longer a fringe experiment; Wall Street analysts now model them as a core revenue pillar.
Why would it overtake crypto?
By 2028, Bernstein expects crypto revenue at about $1.6 billion versus $1.7 billion for prediction markets — a first-ever crossover.
Prediction markets would then account for roughly 18% of Robinhood's projected $9.4 billion total revenue.
In plain terms = the money Robinhood earns from letting people trade coins may soon be smaller than what it earns from letting people bet on outcomes.
Is the next earnings report the first real test?
Bernstein published its forecast one day before Robinhood's Q3 2026 earnings release — timing that looks deliberate.
The firm expects Q3 revenue to grow 13% quarter-over-quarter to roughly $1.5 billion, driven by rising stock and options volumes, growing event-contract activity, and a crypto-trading rebound.
This means → Q3 earnings will be the market's first chance to check the "prediction-market hyper-growth" thesis against actual numbers.
The analyst is bullish — so why didn't the price target move?
Bernstein raised its 2026–2028 revenue estimates by 3%, 4%, and 3% respectively, yet held its price target at $160.
As of Monday's pre-market, HOOD traded at $93.60, down more than 29% over the past twelve months.
Put simply = the analyst thinks earnings power is improving, but the current share price already bakes in enough optimism — no need to lift the target.
This reflects a broader shift: the market is pricing Robinhood less on the growth story and more on "show me the numbers."
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