Bernstein: Stablecoins Rising in Cross-Border Payments; Visa and Mastercard Hold Competitive Edge
nashnova research
Bernstein published a note after the Money20/20 conference, arguing that stablecoins are finding real commercial value in cross-border settlement, while Visa and Mastercard hold first-mover advantages in both stablecoins and AI-agent payments thanks to their network reach and identity-verification capabilities.
What has shifted in the payments industry?
Bernstein observes that global payments competition is moving away from transaction processing speed toward identity verification, transaction trust systems, and payment infrastructure.
This means → the next gatekeeper isn't whoever moves money fastest — it's whoever can prove "this transaction is safe and the person behind it is real."
This year's Money20/20 agenda confirmed the shift: discussions moved past "blockchain will disrupt everything" and focused on AI-agent transaction standards and where stablecoins actually create value.
What problem are stablecoins actually solving?
Stablecoins — digital currencies pegged 1:1 to fiat money like the US dollar — are finding real commercial use, but the growth driver is not consumers buying coffee with them. It is cross-border remittances, fund settlement, and corporate payments.
In plain terms = in parts of Latin America, Africa, and Asia, getting dollars is hard and cross-border transfers are expensive. Stablecoins open a cheaper dollar pipeline.
Bernstein sees stablecoins becoming back-end payment plumbing, not a replacement for bank cards or consumer wallets. BVNK, Bridge, Circle, Zero Hash, and Coinbase are all competing for this market.
Are stablecoins a rival or an ally for Visa and Mastercard?
The conference floor was packed with stablecoin-linked card products, most running on the Visa network — users hold stablecoins but spend through existing card rails.
This means → stablecoins are not bypassing Visa and Mastercard. They are feeding new transaction volume into the same pipes.
Bernstein notes these products share the economics of traditional card businesses and may generate even higher revenue on transactions involving foreign-exchange conversion. Put simply = the more stablecoins spread, the busier Visa's and Mastercard's rails get.
What is AI-agent payments about?
AI-agent commerce — letting an AI place orders and make payments on a person's behalf — is moving from "can the tech work?" to "how do we build trust?"
Six core challenges dominate the discussion: agent identity, transaction authority, consumer intent, authentication, fraud prevention, and liability assignment.
Visa and Mastercard are developing AI-agent payment tokens — digital credentials that let an AI agent prove its identity and authority during a transaction — but some AI shopping products (including Muse and Instinct) have not yet adopted either network's token system.
This reflects a market where standards remain unsettled. Whichever token framework becomes the default will control the future ecosystem's terms.
Why has identity verification become a new battleground?
The number of companies offering fraud prevention, identity authentication, and security services at the conference rose noticeably, yet the market remains highly fragmented.
Visa and Mastercard hold an edge: their security services are embedded directly in payment transactions, backed by unique transaction-data assets and established merchant relationships — a natural base for expanding into identity verification.
Protocol fragmentation may also benefit modern payment processors like Adyen, which can help merchants integrate disparate technical standards and reduce onboarding complexity.
Where does this leave PayPal and other players?
Bernstein sees AI-agent commerce pushing PayPal to a critical inflection point: it must rebuild its two-sided network advantage between consumers and merchants to regain competitiveness in the new smart-payments landscape.
On ratings: Bernstein maintains outperform on Visa, Mastercard, Adyen, Block, Affirm, and Toast; market-perform on PayPal, FIS, Fiserv, Global Payments, and Klarna.
This means → in Bernstein's view, the endgame question is simple: whoever controls the core infrastructure connecting consumers, AI agents, merchants, and money flows wins.
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